625
FXUS65 KBYZ 250818
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
218 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday night...

The weather will turn a little more unsettled today and Sunday,
before drying out for Memorial Day. The more unsettled weather
will be courtesy of a broad trough working across the state. The
trough will come through in pieces, with the first one this
afternoon and evening. This energy will slide across southern
Montana, and have a little better moisture to deal with than the
second wave. Precipitable water amounts will be around 0.60-0.80
inches. Capes will be weak (200-400j/kg) with weak shear. Would
expect scattered showers to develop over western zones this
afternoon, becoming more numerous late this afternoon and this
evening. Showers will not be organized, with little shear, but
could have brief moderate rainfall rates, with the potential for a
quarter inch of rain in the heavier showers. NBM probabilities
for a quarter inch of rainfall were 20-40% (highest west and north
of Billings).

Showers will linger overnight and into Sunday morning, before
stronger downslope winds start to dry things out in the afternoon
and evening. A strong wave moving across northeast Montana (the
second wave of the weekend) will increase 700mb winds to 30-40kts,
with 850mb winds 25-30kts. This will make for a breezy day, with
wind gusts 20-30mph, with some gusts 35-40mph over western and
northwest locations (Livingston to Big Timber to Harlowton). The
best chance of showers in the afternoon will be over the east, and
along the mountains and foothills. Winds and shower chances will
decrease Sunday evening.

Temperatures will be slightly below seasonal averages, with the
slightly warmer day being today. Highs today will be in the mid
60s to lower 70s, with lower to mid 60s on Sunday. TWH

Monday through Friday...

Ridging will begin to build in Monday, ushering in warm and dry
conditions through Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the 60s/low
70s Monday, climbing into the 70s/low 80s for Tuesday and
Wednesday (around 10 degrees above average). With the recent
snowfall in the mountains, there is concern for snow melt to cause
waterways to run high. Any property and/or recreation on waterways
should be considered during this warm period. Ensembles are still
bringing troughing into western MT Wednesday with initial low
precip chances (20-30%) for the far western mountains and
foothills Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
become more likely Wednesday afternoon. The chance for at least a
quarter inch of rain Wednesday through Friday is about 40-60% for
central and western zones with about a 20-30% chance for locations
of Miles City and Sheridan, WY east. Although amounts are not
forecasted to be high at this time, PWATs are forecasted to be
near or just below an inch Wednesday giving way to the
possibility of heavy rain depending on how the setup and dynamics
of this system play out. Pay attention to the forecast as details
become more ironed out. High temperatures will be in the 60s/70s
for Thursday and Friday. TS

&&

.AVIATION...

For this morning, fog development is possible in far eastern MT
(KMLS, KBHK), leading to MVFR conditions. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to develop after 18Z near KLVM and spread
east through the afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions are possible
under any thunderstorms with heavy rain. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 047/066 044/072 046/080 054/080 052/072 048/066
    4/T 74/W    00/U    00/U    14/T    54/T    23/W
LVM 064 041/063 038/071 044/079 051/077 047/068 041/061
    7/T 83/T    00/U    01/U    26/T    54/T    33/T
HDN 070 047/067 041/072 044/083 051/082 051/075 047/067
    3/T 74/W    10/U    00/U    12/T    53/T    22/W
MLS 070 049/065 045/070 044/080 054/084 054/077 049/070
    1/B 64/W    10/U    00/U    01/U    42/W    21/B
4BQ 070 047/066 045/069 044/080 053/084 054/079 051/069
    1/B 44/W    10/U    00/U    01/U    32/T    21/B
BHK 069 044/065 042/067 042/077 049/082 052/077 049/071
    1/U 35/T    11/U    00/U    01/U    32/W    21/B
SHR 068 042/064 040/068 043/079 050/082 049/076 045/067
    3/T 55/T    10/U    00/U    02/T    43/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings