254
FXUS62 KCAE 282348
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
748 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler weather will continue moving into the region as
high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s through early
next week. Moisture is expected to return to the region this
weekend leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface front has pushed east of the forecast area and has
stalled out close to the coast. Weak shortwave energy moving
through north of the cwa, but should only see a few clouds
associated with that this evening. Airmass is dry enough to
limit any rain potential. Winds will be out of the west to
northwest around 5 mph or less overnight. With the drier air now
in place and mostly clear skies later tonight, temperatures
will be able to drop down into the low 60`s in most spots, and
likely some spots hit the 50`s across the western and northern
Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will be over the eastern US Wednesday
and Thursday with high pressure gradually building in at the
surface Wednesday and Thursday. Pwat values will be aob 0.75
inches with model soundings indicating a weak subsidence
inversion Wednesday which strengthens into Thursday. Northerly
flow will also be continuing across the area as the center of
the high moves through the Great Lakes which will advect
additional cool air into the forecast area with high
temperatures on Wednesday in the mid 80s to around 90 with low
to mid 80s Thursday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s
to low 60s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level trough will finally be moving offshore Friday
morning with high pressure moving from the central Great Lakes
into the mid Atlantic and New England area late Friday. This
will produce southerly flow and moisture return over the
western and central Gulf States. This will continue through
Saturday with moisture return beginning mainly in the northern
CSRA and western Midlands. Pwats Saturday afternoon are expected
to rise over 1 inch however with dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be
confined to the southernmost portions of the CSRA and far
southwestern Midlands. Saturday night and Sunday the moisture
plume will move further eastward as the high pressure slides
offshore and the area comes under increasing southerly flow. The
pattern becomes more active early next week with some short
waves moving through the pattern and combining with the moisture
to provide slight chance to chance pops. Temperatures through
the long term will be slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Dry air remains in place with skies clearing across the forecast
area this evening. Winds beginning to decrease tonight with a
loss of daytime heating and an inversion setting up. Clear skies
continue through the TAF period with high confidence in no
restrictions as dew points have fallen significantly preventing
fog. Winds increase again late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon, although not as expected to be as gusty as today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$