Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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254 FXUS62 KCAE 282348 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 748 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather will continue moving into the region as high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s through early next week. Moisture is expected to return to the region this weekend leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface front has pushed east of the forecast area and has stalled out close to the coast. Weak shortwave energy moving through north of the cwa, but should only see a few clouds associated with that this evening. Airmass is dry enough to limit any rain potential. Winds will be out of the west to northwest around 5 mph or less overnight. With the drier air now in place and mostly clear skies later tonight, temperatures will be able to drop down into the low 60`s in most spots, and likely some spots hit the 50`s across the western and northern Midlands. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper level trough will be over the eastern US Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure gradually building in at the surface Wednesday and Thursday. Pwat values will be aob 0.75 inches with model soundings indicating a weak subsidence inversion Wednesday which strengthens into Thursday. Northerly flow will also be continuing across the area as the center of the high moves through the Great Lakes which will advect additional cool air into the forecast area with high temperatures on Wednesday in the mid 80s to around 90 with low to mid 80s Thursday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s each night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper level trough will finally be moving offshore Friday morning with high pressure moving from the central Great Lakes into the mid Atlantic and New England area late Friday. This will produce southerly flow and moisture return over the western and central Gulf States. This will continue through Saturday with moisture return beginning mainly in the northern CSRA and western Midlands. Pwats Saturday afternoon are expected to rise over 1 inch however with dry air remaining in the mid levels the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the southernmost portions of the CSRA and far southwestern Midlands. Saturday night and Sunday the moisture plume will move further eastward as the high pressure slides offshore and the area comes under increasing southerly flow. The pattern becomes more active early next week with some short waves moving through the pattern and combining with the moisture to provide slight chance to chance pops. Temperatures through the long term will be slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Dry air remains in place with skies clearing across the forecast area this evening. Winds beginning to decrease tonight with a loss of daytime heating and an inversion setting up. Clear skies continue through the TAF period with high confidence in no restrictions as dew points have fallen significantly preventing fog. Winds increase again late tomorrow morning into the afternoon, although not as expected to be as gusty as today. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$