087
FXUS62 KCAE 020540
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
140 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture continues to increase over the region through early to
mid next week. This will lead to isolated to scattered
convection mainly in the afternoons and evenings. A cold front
approaches the Southeast late next week leading to increasing
rain chances. Temperatures should rise to near normal values
over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cumulus which had developed along the coast and pushed into the
eastern Midlands and southern CSRA have dissipated with loss of
heating. Mid and high clouds continue to overspread the region
from the west as southerly to southeasterly flow advects
moisture into the region. Dewpoints which were in the upper 40s
to 50 early this afternoon have currently risen to the mid 50s
and will continue gradually rising overnight. Pwat values
currently below 1 inch will steadily rise and erode the mid
level dry air currently in place and by daybreak pwat values
will be around 1.25 inches. A few showers are possible by
sunrise mainly in the western Midlands and northern CSRA however
with the dry air expect any rainfall to be light. With the
increasing clouds and moisture overnight lows will be in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As surface high pressure and ridging aloft more further east
southerly flow strengthens over the Southeast. This will lead to
PWAT values to increase to around 1.75 inches. A shortwave
trough moves into the region during the day which should
support scattered convection, although instability will likely
be weak with sbCAPE values between 250 and 750 J/kg. CAMs
suggest limited coverage mainly focused in the CSRA and SC
Piedmont where moisture will be deepest. Convection should
diminish early in the evening although weak short wave energy
moving through the eastern trough may trigger isolated showers
into the overnight mainly across the northern Midlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
From the start of the long term through the middle of the week,
global ensembles favor zonal upper level flow or weak ridging
over the area. Atmospheric moisture will be near or above normal
with ensembles trending on the side of higher moisture in
general over the period. With PWAT values near or above normal
and weak shortwave activity present in the region we would
typically expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Although convection would generally develop in
the afternoon shortwave activity could promote thunderstorms
into the evening or overnight based on their timing. The
convection should be isolated to widely scattered through mid-
week with a trigger lacking. Temps continue to be warm with deep
southerly flow in place warm.

The ensembles suggest more convective coverage by mid to late
week as an anomalously deep upper low moves from the northern
Plains into the eastern CONUS. Ensemble members have come into
better agreement with the amplitude and timing of the trough but
some differences remain. The cold front associated with the
trough will move toward the region Thursday and may pass through
the area late in the week. The potential for a frontal passage
will lead to PoPs increasing late week however, there are still
a handful of ensemble members that keep the front north of the
area. The track of the front will play a large role in the
forecast for the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Mid-level clouds are currently spreading across the region from
the southwest. Expect this trend to continue through the
overnight hours. Radar is picking up on activity near the
DNL/AGS terminals as of this update; however, the likelihood of
any of the precipitation reaching the ground is minimal, so have
kept it out of the TAFs. That said a rogue light shower cannot
be completely ruled out through about 09z. Shortly after sunrise
(~13z), expect a cumulus field in the 5-6 kft range to develop
over the region. Scattered showers and isolated storms remain
anticipated, the amount of coverage over and around the
terminals remains highly uncertain. Thus, have kept mention of
showers and storms out of the TAFs for the time being. Ceilings
are expected to lift late in the period once again. Generally
south to southeasterly winds of less than 10 kts are expected
through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday with
intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$