619
FXUS62 KCAE 020041
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
841 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases over the region through early to mid next
week. This will lead to isolated to scattered convection mainly
in the afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach the
Southeast late next week leading increasing rain chances.
Temperatures should rise to near normal values over the next few
days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cumulus which had developed along the coast and pushed into the
eastern Midlands and southern CSRA have dissipated with loss of
heating. Mid and high clouds continue to overspread the region
from the west as southerly to southeasterly flow advects
moisture into the region. Dewpoints which were in the upper 40s
to 50 early this afternoon have currently risen to the mid 50s
and will continue gradually rising overnight. Pwat values
currently below 1 inch will steadily rise and erode the mid
level dry air currently in place and by daybreak pwat values
will be around 1.25 inches. A few showers are possible by
sunrise mainly in the western Midlands and northern CSRA however
with the dry air expect any rainfall to be light. With the
increasing clouds and moisture overnight lows will be in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As surface high pressure and ridging aloft more further east
southerly flow strengthens over the Southeast. This will lead to
PWAT values to increase to around 1.75 inches. A shortwave
trough moves into the region during the day which should
support scattered convection, although instability will likely
be weak with sbCAPE values between 250 and 750 J/kg. CAMs
suggest limited coverage mainly focused in the CSRA and SC
Piedmont where moisture will be deepest. Convection should
diminish early in the evening although weak short wave energy
moving through the eastern trough may trigger isolated showers
into the overnight mainly across the northern Midlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
From the start of the long term through the middle of the week,
global ensembles favor zonal upper level flow or weak ridging
over the area. Atmospheric moisture will be near or above normal
with ensembles trending on the side of higher moisture in
general over the period. With PWAT values near or above normal
and weak shortwave activity present in the region we would
typically expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Although convection would generally develop in
the afternoon shortwave activity could promote thunderstorms
into the evening or overnight based on their timing. The
convection should be isolated to widely scattered through mid-
week with a trigger lacking. Temps continue to be warm with deep
southerly flow in place warm.

The ensembles suggest more convective coverage by mid to late
week as an anomalously deep upper low moves from the northern
Plains into the eastern CONUS. Ensemble members have come into
better agreement with the amplitude and timing of the trough but
some differences remain. The cold front associated with the
trough will move toward the region Thursday and may pass through
the area late in the week. The potential for a frontal passage
will lead to PoPs increasing late week however, there are still
a handful of ensemble members that keep the front north of the
area. The track of the front will play a large role in the
forecast for the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Increasing moisture tonight will lead to increasing mid-level
clouds overnight. Shortly after daybreak, expect cumulus deck to
develop around 5 to 6kft. Expect ceilings to remain VFR at all
terminals. While scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm are expected to develop tomorrow, coverage and
timing remains uncertain. Does look like the most likely timing
for showers or storms to impact the terminals will be after 18z.
Since this is the last period, have left it out of this
issuance of the TAFs until higher confidence in potential
impacts to the terminals. Winds out of the of the SSE,
decreasing slightly overnight before increasing after daybreak
Sunday out of the south between 5 and 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday with
intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$