555
FXUS62 KCAE 161744
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
144 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will keep conditions dry through tonight. Shower
and thunderstorm chances increase again Friday and especially on
Saturday with unsettled weather likely lingering into Sunday. A
cooler and drier air mass moves in for Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures rebounding during the middle of next week as
another ridge moves in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry mid and upper levels, with some low-level moisture, will
remain this evening and into tonight. Low-level moisture will
produce some fair weather cu through the afternoon, then those
will dissipate towards sunset. Some moisture increase is possible
aloft late tonight into Friday morning, with mainly some cirrus
moving across the region. Afternoon highs still on track for the
low to mid 80s. Overnight lows drop into the mid 60s. Can not
rule out patchy fog late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PWs will begin to increase in advance of the slow moving trough,
progged to push through the region over and through the region
Friday night through Sunday. Clouds will increase as a result of
the increasing moisture, and this should hold temperatures down
into the low to mid 80s for highs for most. Rain is expected to
begin developing in the late afternoon with more widespread
coverage likely as isentropic lift increases across the area
ahead of the shortwave trough. Lows overnight should remain in
the upper 60s given the rain and cloud cover. Saturday`s
forecast is at least interesting, but skepticism regarding
overall severe threat is fairly high. While ensemble guidance is
fairly bullish with probability for some instability & shear
across the southern FA, clouds are expected to be widespread and
with at least some rain remaining across the area, it is
uncertain whether we`ll be able to destabilize enough or not.
Synoptic forcing looks good, but there is not a strong, definite
low-level forcing mechanism that would focus convection. CSU
probabilities are elevated across the southern FA and that is
definitely the spot if we have severe convection Saturday. Highs
on Saturday are very dependent on cloud cover, but should range
from the upper 70s to the mid 80s across the FA. Some shower
activity will probably hang around thru the overnight hours,
with lows falling into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continue to expect showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon
as the upper level trough swings overhead. The cool mid-level
temps could actually yield a favorable environment for strong
thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, so we will need to keep an
eye on model trends over the next couple of days. There after,
cooler air pushes in on Monday and maybe Tuesday as surface high
pressure ridges into the region. Some indication of weak wedge
conditions setting up on Monday but it is so climatologically
unfavored this time of year that we will need more model
guidance to actually delineate whether or not that happens.
Ridging is expected to push over head through the remainder of
the period, with seasonally low chances for rainfall and above
normal temps by this time next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the end of the period.

Fair weather cu fields will remain through the afternoon around
4-5kft, then dissipate towards sunset. Only cloud cover
overnight will be some this cirrus beginning to move into the
region, becoming more broken by Friday morning. With some low-
level moisture in place light winds, can not rule out some
patchy fog development near rivers late tonight, with mvfr
visibilities at ags/ogb possible. Winds this afternoon light and
out of the north, then calm to light/variable overnight. Winds
turning more southerly but still light after sunrise Friday
morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible again Friday afternoon
through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$