307
FXUS61 KCAR 300735
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
335 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough across the region will move east of the
area on Friday. High pressure builds in from the west on
Saturday and drifts overhead Sunday and remains across the area
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The 500mb long wave trof remains over the Northeast today with a
piece of shortwave energy rounding the base. This will allow for
weak surface convergence and a weak sfc low to track over the
Gulf of Maine today with some precipitation. General trend in
the hi-res guidance and operational globals keeps much of the
shower activity confined to the Downeast coast and out over the
Gulf of Maine waters. Will show isolated to scattered showers
today mainly along and south of the Route 9 corridor between
Bangor and Calais today with Bangor and Calais likely remaining
dry. There is some high and mid level clouds with this today
that will mainly be confined to the southern 1/3-1/2 of the CWA
with just a few clouds today across the north. Light N-NW winds
today generally less than 10mph will keep things under the cool
pool aloft at seasonable levels. Highs today top out in the low
to mid 60s across the north, upper 60s to low 70s on the
Downslope S-SE side of the Longfellow Mtns into the Greater
Bangor area then down to the Downeast coast.

Tonight, the weak low tracks into Nova Scotia and brings an end
to the showers this evening. The coldest air of the 500mb trof
will rotate into Eastern and Northern Maine tonight. Surface
high pressure nearing 1025mb over the Great Lakes begins its
drift eastward. Winds will decouple tonight across much of the
CWA and with drying air expect skies to turn mostly clear.
Temperatures across the North Woods in places along and west of
Route 11 may have to contend with patchy to areas of frost. A
sharp very low inversion will likely form at around 500-1000ft
AGL and beneath this inversion may allow for areas to dip into
the 33-36F range. There is some uncertainty on how the inversion
sets up given much of the modeled soundings aren`t handling this
situation in a typical sense we do see this time of year with
dry/cool airmass. Given this have opted to paint patchy to areas
of frost in areas along and west of Route 11 in Aroostook,
Penobscot and Piscataquis County north of Katahdin.
Additionally, patchy to areas of frost in the St. John Valley
from Hamlin westward and cannot rule out some patchy frost in
the Aroostook River valley near Masardis and Ashland. Elsewhere,
will generally be in the 40-45F range tonight with upper 40s
along the Downeast coast.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A nice stretch of weather heading into the upcoming weekend.
On Friday morning a mid level trough axis will extend across
western New Brunswick, and the trough will slowly move east
during the day. At the surface, there will be north to northwest
flow with high pressure in the Great Lakes and low pressure
east of the Maritimes. There will likely be enough cold air and
moisture aloft that after a bright start to the day fair weather
cumulus will develop, especially across the north, but also in
the eastern zones closest to the departing mid level trough.
Temperatures will be seasonable for the end of May. The ridge
axis builds closer to the area Friday night with the sky
becoming clear and the wind turning light and even calm in many
valleys. Lows will likely drop into the 30s in the normally
colder northern valleys where patchy frost will be possible.
Saturday looks bright and sunny with comfortably low humidity
continuing, and lighter wind with the surface high over the
region. Highs will be several degrees warmer than Friday and
should reach the low to mid 70s inland. The weak surface flow
will promote the formation of a sea breeze keeping temperatures
much cooler along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The quiet stretch of weather to continue with dry and warmer weather
with increasing humidity next week, although dew points are not
likely to rise above the 50s, so nothing too extreme. A block looks
to develop with low pressure in the western Atlantic and low
pressure moving across Canada with lows east of James Bay and in
the Great Lakes toward the middle of next week. The FA remains
under riding and temperatures will moderate to above average
levels, and it likely remains dry until the ridge may eventually
break down later in the week and shower chances increase. Highs
could potentially get into the lower 80s for many inland areas
by early next week, but much cooler along the coast where night
time low clouds and fog could be possible with the more humid
air mass across the region. There is also some indications that
a back-door cold front could try to push in from the maritimes
with cooler air around Tuesday, but confidence remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions today into tonight. BCFG/BR possible
at some northern terms this AM before sunrise. VCSH/-SHRA
possible today at BHB. SCT high cigs today north, BKN mid level
cigs today south. N-NW winds 5-10kts today except E winds at
5-10kt for BHB. Tonight winds light and variable generally less
than 10kt.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected Friday through Monday. There is a very
low chance and low confidence in late night patchy fog Friday
night, mainly at KHUL and KPQI. Also low confidence on IFR/MVFR
late Sunday night/early Monday morning at KBHB if lower clouds
and fog develop in the Gulf of Maine and try to move onshore.
Generally light wind through the period, but a seabreeze will
bring a SSW wind 10 to 15 knots each afternoon at KBHB.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA conditions through
tonight. E-NE winds today less than 10kt with seas 2-3ft with a
7-8sec period. Tonight winds shift N 5-15kt and seas subside to
1-2ft with a period of 7 seconds. Sea surface temperatures in
the mid to upper 40s extend from the Downeast coast out 25nm and
east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Monday. Fog will become possible on the waters
by early next week as a more humid air mass moves over the cold
waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Sinko/CB
Marine...Sinko/CB