880
FXUS62 KCHS 021511
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1111 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A
cold front will slowly move through on Friday, followed by high
pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Morning composite analysis reveals low amplitude troughiness
across the southeast CONUS, surface high pressure now well off
the mid Atlantic coast and southerly return flow across the
region. Axis of higher PWAT air has spread into the
region...PWAT values over one inch. Modest warm/moist advection
and larger scale QG-forcing for ascent has/is producing some
light showers west of the I-95 corridor. There has also been
some very light shower activity off the Atlantic overnight into
this morning, much of which has diminished at this juncture.

Rest of today: Weak troughiness/QG-forcing for ascent remains
across the region through the afternoon. Add in daytime heating
and some modest instability (500 J/Kg or less MLCAPE) and we
should see some additional isolated to scattered shower
activity develop across the region as we go through the day,
particularly inland. We have made some minor cosmetic tweaks to
pops/weather although maintaining pop chances in the 20 to 40
percent range inland. Thunder probs are very low this afternoon
given minimal instability. We have capped any thunder wording to
areas west of the I-95 corridor.

Finally, the added cloud cover will hold temperatures down to
some extent although cloud cover will thin out a bit as we get
into the afternoon. Maintaining highs largely in the middle 80s
(83-87) and cooler readings along the coast.

Tonight: Any ongoing convection should diminish in the early
evening hours and then the rest of the overnight is expected to
be dry. There could be some isolated convection across the
coastal waters, though most of that should be beyond the local
waters. Look for mid to upper 60s for lows in most areas with no
significant fog concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain over the western Atlantic
Monday through Wednesday. Warm and moist southerly flow will
persist, with high temps steadily increasing each day. Diurnal
convection appears possible each day, though better coverage is
expected Monday and Wednesday due to some upper shortwave energy
moving through. A fairly capped atmosphere is anticipated on
Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage on any day should be
farther inland where greater instability develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday could see greater convective coverage, especially in
the afternoon, as a potent upper shortwave moves through while
deep moisture remains in place. Low-level warm advection could
result in high temps in the lower 90s away from the coast. A
zonal flow develops aloft on Friday while a weak cold front sags
into the area. Instability could be pretty impressive on Friday
along with DCAPE above 1200 J/kg, though convective coverage
could be isolated at best due to strong mid-level capping in the
deep westerly flow. Compressional heating ahead of the front
could yield highs in the mid 90s, including fairly close to the
coast due to a pinned sea breeze. Even if the cold front makes
it through Friday night, Saturday temps will not be much cooler.
However, dewpoints should mix down into the upper 50s which
will make for a noticeable change in airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z
Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Conditions will generally be VFR
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: SE to SSE flow will prevail across the local
waters, with speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range. The
strongest winds will likely be along the land/sea interface in
the afternoon and early evening and gusts up to around 20 knots
will be possible. Seas will mostly average 2-3 feet, but could
be up to 4 feet at times in the outer Georgia waters.

Monday through Friday, Atlantic high pressure will continue to
be the main feature and a typical summertime pattern will ensue.
Southerly winds will prevail, with the typical coastal
enhancement each afternoon in association with the sea breeze.
Wind speeds should remain below 15 kt and seas will remain at or
below 4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The evening high tides in Charleston could hit 7.0 ft MLLW
Monday through Thursday and require Coastal Flood Advisories.
This is due to increasing astronomical tides combined with a
persistent positive tidal anomaly of 0.5 to 0.7 ft. The astro
tide is highest Wednesday evening where it reaches 6.5 ft MLLW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam/BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL