483
FXUS62 KCHS 011728
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
128 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through early next
week. A cold front could approach late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early afternoon update: Just minor tweaks made to the forecast
based on temperature and cloud trends.

Morning composite analysis reveals a sharp short-wave ridge
axis extending from off the Florida Atlantic coast up through
the Carolinas. Short-wave trough axis and corridor of precip is
close behind stretching along the central and lower Mississippi
River Valley into the Gulf along with a couple of noted
vorticity centers; one moving into western KY/TN and a second
moving along the Gulf Coast where there is some beefier
convection ongoing. Surface high pressure and attending dry air
(PWAT value of 0.44" on the CHS 12Z sounding) covers the mid
Atlantic and southeast region although the eastern edge of the
axis of higher dewpoint air is edging across Georgia.

Short-wave ridge axis and attending surface high pressure
center will be slipping off the Atlantic coast today while axis
of higher PWAT/dewpoint air begins to fold into the region.
Upstream precip is still looking to decay rather quickly
however, as it runs into the drier air across our region. That
said, we will see higher cloud cover gradually spread eastward
into the region, and probably some diurnal Cu development...most
likely across Georgia. Only minor changes were made to the going
forecast, maintaining dry weather and gradually increasing cloud
cover. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 80s...coolest
along the coast in the easterly onshore flow.

Tonight: The aforementioned shortwave will continue to push in
from the west should be aligned right on top of the area by
early Sunday morning. This will bring a steady rise in
precipitable water values, especially in southeast Georgia where
values should be around 1.5" by sunrise Sunday. Some high-res
model solutions suggest that isolated convection could develop
within the arriving higher precipitable water air, but we have
opted not to include any mention of anything at this time.
However, it isn`t out of the question for there to be an
isolated shower or thunderstorm across the west late in the
overnight, and rain chances could eventually need to be included
in the forecast. Overnight lows will not be as cool as the last
few nights, with lows in the low 60s inland and upper 60s to
low 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak upper ridging will prevail Sunday through Tuesday though a
few weak shortwaves could ripple through the area. At the
surface, Atlantic high pressure will persist, maintaining
southerly flow and decent low-level moisture advection. We
should see isolated to scattered diurnal convection during the
period, primarily driven by a progressive sea breeze. The
greatest coverage should be farther inland. Warm advection will
result in steadily warming temperatures each day, with highs
touching the lower 90s away from the coast by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A zonal flow mid week will transition to a broad upper trough
late week with a possible cold front dropping into the area
Thursday or Friday. If this occurs, this would likely be the
best chance for greater convective coverage as well as storm
intensity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z
Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through
early to mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: Easterly flow this morning will become
southeasterly later on in the day and persist through the
overnight. Wind speeds should mostly fall into the 10-15 knot
range, with some gusts up to around 20 knots mainly along the
land/sea interface this afternoon and early this evening. Seas
should average 2-3 feet through the period, but could be up to 4
feet at times in the outer Georgia waters.

A typical summertime pattern will prevail Sunday through
Thursday as Atlantic high pressure remains in place. A decent
sea breeze should develop each afternoon along the coast. Winds
should remain below 15 kt and seas no higher than 4 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam/BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...Adam/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL