671
FXUS62 KCHS 311007
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
607 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through early next
week. A cold front could approach late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast is on track. No changes were needed for the sunrise
update.

Today: Subtropical ridging will begin to take hold across the
Southeast U.S today after being under the influence of an East
Coast longwave trough for the past few days. Surface high
pressure centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will maintain
its local influence. A weak sea breeze will develop along the
coast by early afternoon with the orientation of the surface
high supporting a quicker inland progression of the sea breeze
across coastal Georgia versus south coastal South Carolina.
1000-850 hPa thickness schemes support highs in the mid-upper
80s again today with slightly cooler temperatures near the
coast. There will be nearly continuous feed of cirrus traversing
the region today, but most of these high clouds will remain
fairly thin. A mostly sunny sky character should suffice.

Tonight: The boundary layer will once again decouple by mid-
evening as the sea breeze dissipates and high pressure holds
across the Southeast States. Light/calm winds coupled with low
dewpoints and mostly clear skies (from thin cirrus) will
support strong radiational cooling similar to this morning.
Lows were trended towards the colder side of the 31/00z guidance
mean, ranging from the mid-upper 50s inland to the lower 70s at
the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Tight thermal gradients
will occur near bodies of water with SSTs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will persist on Saturday, maintaining dry
conditions and near normal temperatures. The shortwave ridge
will move offshore Saturday night with a relatively neutral
upper pattern Sunday into Monday. The surface high will shift
east and then sit over the western Atlantic during the period.
The increasing low-level moisture and breakdown of the upper
ridge should allow at least isolated diurnal convection to
develop Sunday and Monday. High temps look to climb back into
the upper 80s by Monday as low-level thicknesses increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fairly typical summertime pattern will exist with isolated to
scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms. A weak cold front
could approach from the west on Thursday. Above normal temps
will continue through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
31/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 01/12z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Northeast winds will veer to the east this
afternoon and continue into tonight as high pressure holds well
to the northwest. Speeds will generally hold below 15 kt and
1-2 building to 2-3 ft, except 3-4 ft over the Georgia offshore
waters.

Saturday through Wednesday: Atlantic high pressure will be the
primary feature affecting the marine area Saturday through
Wednesday. A decent sea breeze should develop each afternoon
along the coast. Winds should remain below 15 kt and seas no
higher than 4 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$