652
FXUS62 KCHS 281737
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
137 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall near the coast today. High pressure
will return for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface observations indicate a front has stalled along our
coast, confirmed by NW winds and dew points dropping away from
the beaches. Even with the front along the coast, a weak sea
breeze is still expected to develop this afternoon, but remain
pinned along the coast due to the NW winds. Some of the CAMs
still point to just enough convergence and lingering moisture to
generate isolated convection for a few hours this afternoon,
mainly in the upper parts of Charleston County and far eastern
Berkeley County. We maintained slight chance POPs here, but we
wouldn`t be surprised if these areas stay rain-free. Elsewhere,
considerably drier air advecting in from the west and northwest
will make it very difficult for anything more than clouds to
form. Even though low- level thicknesses drop a bit behind the
front, a modest downslope flow developing downwind of the
Southern Appalachians will tend to counteract the cooling
influences. Highs should peak in the lower 90s almost all the
way to the beaches, but lower dewpoints will make it feel a bit
less sticky and humid compared to the past few days.

Tonight: High pressure will build in from the west overnight as
a stalled front begins to push farther offshore. The gradient
between these two features will likely keep a bit of wind going
through the night, but clear skies and low dewpoints will
promote at least some degree of modest radiational cooling.
Lows will range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s
at the beaches. A northwest wind across Lake Moultrie will
likely keep areas immediately downwind of the lake (i.e. Bonneau
and Moncks Corner) a bit warmer given water temperatures are in
the upper 70s/lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface trough develops over the region on Wednesday, before
high pressure builds Wednesday night and pushes a secondary
front offshore. High pressure remains the dominant surface
feature through late week. Aloft, broad troughing persists over
the eastern U.S., until a shortwave dives across the mid-
Atlantic and eventually shifts offshore. Not much in the way of
forcing or moisture for convection, so rain chances remain
pretty low through the period. Highs near 90 on Wednesday return
to the mid 80s for Thursday and Friday. Lows span the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure initially centered over the mid-Atlantic
will transition offshore and persist into early next week.
Aloft, ridging will shift across the Southeast on Saturday
before a series of weak disturbances possibly pass through. No
stand-out day for precip at this point, with rain chances just
in the 20-30% range. Temperatures will be within a few degrees
of climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TAFs: VFR. Isolated convection could develop just north of
KCHS and KJZI for a few hours this afternoon near the
intersection of a weak sea breeze and a stationary front.
However, the probabilities of direct impacts to these sites is
very low, so we won`t include any mention in these TAFs.
Otherwise, winds will eventually turn to the NW by daybreak
Wednesday, as the front moves further offshore.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Winds will back more southerly this afternoon
as a cold front stalls near the coast and a weak sea breeze
develops near the beaches. Winds will remain less than 15 kt
with seas 2-3 ft. Winds will finally turn west and eventually
northwest tonight as the front finally begins to push farther
offshore. Again, speeds will remain less than 15 kt with seas
2-3 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns anticipated midweek
through the weekend. Secondary front passes through Wednesday
night with high pressure the main feature for Thursday and
beyond. Wind speeds average less than 15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet
initially build to 2-4 feet over the weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...