964
FXUS61 KCLE 270228
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1028 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over the Midwest will lift a warm front
into the area tonight, followed by a cold front on Monday. The
low will linger over eastern Ontario on Monday night into
Tuesday with another cold front being extended through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
10:00 PM Update...
Convection has weakened enough to allow the rest of the severe
thunderstorm watch to expire at 10 PM. The forecast area has
been worked over quite substantially with very little
instability remaining and likely subsidence in the wake of the
MCV. Convection over southern Indiana and vicinity will likely
spread northeastward into our forecast area late tonight (after
2 AM) as a broad area of rain showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Severe weather is very unlikely with the best
severe weather chances remaining well to our south.

Portions of previous discussions...
Showers and storms have developed near Chicago and the main
severe show for tonight has blossomed near St. Louis. This area
will fill in over the next several hours and reach the forecast
area after 2 AM. The round of convection this evening will have
stabilized the local area and do not believe that the atmosphere
will greatly recover to make the overnight round too
problematic, but there is enough spin in the atmosphere and jet
support where storms will need to be monitored through the
overnight.

All indications that this line will continue northeast through
the forecast area and exit the far NW PA counties by Midnight.
So far, there has been rather robust clearing behind the main
line with a dominant cold pool and there should be a distinct
multi-hour break in rain and thunderstorms for the area tonight.
However, another round of more scattered convection will
generate and move into the region, once there is some recovery.
There will be better support further south and southwest, where
there will be a larger recovery window, and storm coverage will
be better outside of the forecast area. However, there will be
some synoptic lifting mechanisms with the low to the northwest,
cold front to the west, and the main upper trough aloft that
should allow for some more thunderstorms to develop into the
forecast area. Severe trends with these storms will be
substantially lower than this afternoon/evening. Showers and
storms will be possible through the first half of Monday until
the cold front passes through the forecast area. The cold front
will be through the forecast area on Monday night and have the
forecast trending to dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low centered over Quebec will continue to eject multiple
shortwave troughs across the region through the short term period.
These shortwaves will bring multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Best
support for thunderstorms will be diurnally driven as MLCAPE values
rise into the 500-1000 J/kg range Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Highs on Tuesday rise into the lower 70s with overnight lows
settling in the lower 50s. Cooler on Wednesday behind a cold front
with highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Much quieter and drier weather in store for the long term as upper
level ridging and surface high pressure build over the eastern
CONUS. We`ll be dry through the bulk of the forecast period with our
next chance for precipitation coming on Sunday as another shortwave
approaches the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will climb through
the long term with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The main line of showers and thunderstorms has made it north of
most of the terminals this evening with rain continuing at KMFD,
KCLE, and KYNG and TS still possible at the KERI terminal.
Storms will continue north over the next few hours and exit the
forecast area. A mix of VFR to IFR ceilings will remain across
the region in the wake of the storms. After a brief lull in
convection overnight, additional showers and storms are
expected to enter the region at/after 06z. These storms will
likely not have the wind that this evening`s round had. However,
another round of non-VFR will be expected with the storms,
especially the southern terminals. Non-VFR ceilings will then
firmly take over the region until a cold frontal passage on
Monday afternoon, when ceilings will lift back to VFR. Winds are
variable with the convection at this time, but will return to a
southeast component. Winds will veer with time overnight and
with the frontal passage with southwest winds with gusts to 30
kt possible on Monday.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with low ceilings and any residual
showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Periodic Non-
VFR conditions may persist in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure centered over the Great Plains will lift a warm front
north across the lake tonight. East winds 15-20 knots this afternoon
turn south as the front lifts northward. The surface low moves
northeast toward the Great Lakes region while dragging a cold front
east across the lake on Monday. Winds turn southwesterly behind the
front while increasing to 15-25 knots with waves across nearshore
waters building to 4-6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed Monday afternoon and evening into Tuesday. Additionally,
hazardous swimming conditions with an increased risk for rip
currents will be likely on Monday. Lingering surface troughing will
remain draped over the lake through the middle of the week. High
pressure builds in overhead from the northwest by mid week and will
turn winds onshore at 10-15 knots through the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Iverson