Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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596 FXUS64 KCRP 280851 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 351 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect from noon through 8 PM. - Slight risk of severe thunderstorms today through tonight. - Moderate risk of rip currents through Wednesday. Convection has diminished across the area overnight, but some patchy light rain bands have lingered behind. The noteworthy tidbit this morning however is the heat burst currently occurring across the region in the wake of the thunderstorms. The temperature at the Corpus Christi airport warmed to 84 degrees with the dewpoint dropping to 63 degrees in the last hour. While NAS Kingsville observations are 89 over 60! Quite impressive! What a way to start off the day! On that note, yet another hot day is in the cards for South Texas today, although not has hot as yesterday. 850 MB temperatures will be slightly cooler, resulting in surface temperatures a few degrees cooler as well. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 80s along the coast to near 102 across the west. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values will be able to climb into the 110-114 degrees range this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect from noon through 8 PM today for most of South Texas with the exception of the barrier islands. Another round of convective potential is also in the forecast for today through tonight as yet another mid level disturbance tracks over the region. Hi-res models are indicating convective initialization near a surface boundary over the Hill Country with showers and thunderstorms reaching the area in the late afternoon to evening hours. There is a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms covering a large portion of the area today through early Wednesday morning. Instability will be very high (MUCAPE values 3-5k), with a weak cap. Strong winds and large hail will be the primary hazards. Things are expected to calm down Wednesday morning, but rain chances will still linger behind. PoPs will range between 20 and 50% through tonight, and up to a 40% on Wednesday. There is a Moderate risk of rip currents today through Wednesday owing to the combination of a moderate onshore flow and 7 to 8 second period swells and 3-4 feet swell heights. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to extreme heat related impacts will continue through early next week. South Texas will remain under the influence of a mid level ridge through the long term period maintaining the unseasonably hot, humid and hazy conditions that we have experienced for the last few weeks. A shortwave trough is progged to move around the periphery of this ridge about every 24 hours, initiating convection which could skirt our northern to northeastern CWA. Will carry a low 10-30% chance for showers/storms daily through the period in the aforementioned areas. A persistent onshore flow will also maintain the high dewpoints across the area. When combined with afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 90s coast to around 102-106 far west, heat indices will reach advisory criteria each day. Excessive heat warnings may again be required by early next week. The onshore winds will also continue to draw a thick plume of smoke/haze northward into the region as fires continue to burn in Mexico. In fact according to the National Forestry Commission of Mexico (CONAFOR), there were 125 active fires as of May 27. By the early to middle part of next week the mid level ridge will shift westward, and strengthen over the Southern Rockies. If this occurs, there could be a shift in the low level flow more toward the northeast or north, which could temporarily end or reduce our hazy skies. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through the cycle. Convection should be coming to an end over the next few hours, with drier conditions expected through most of the day on Tuesday. Winds have been responding to the nearby thunderstorms and have become breezy at times, but these will generally weaken overnight, becoming light by the early morning hours. Winds will strengthen to moderate levels around mid to late morning today, before weakening again in the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There will be a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms today through Wednesday, and a low (10-30%) chance each day from Thursday through the end of the week, mainly across the Gulf waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 80 92 79 / 10 30 30 20 Victoria 95 77 92 76 / 10 40 40 20 Laredo 102 77 99 78 / 30 40 20 10 Alice 98 78 96 77 / 10 30 30 20 Rockport 92 81 89 80 / 10 30 40 30 Cotulla 102 77 98 78 / 20 50 20 20 Kingsville 97 79 95 78 / 10 30 30 20 Navy Corpus 91 82 89 81 / 10 30 40 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM/88 LONG TERM....JM/75 AVIATION...ANM/88