348
FXUS64 KCRP 302033
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
333 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Elevated heat risk of 110F or greater expected Friday for south
  Texas.
- Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Friday


As has been the case the last few days, south Texas has been under a
generally zonal flow, with 500 mb shortwaves trough moving through
the region every day or two. With that in mind, and the fact that
the temperatures and RH are high enough today so I issued a Heat
Advisory for the Brush Country and the southern Coastal Bend until
8pm. But the main concern starts tonight. Most of the convective
impulses have started north or west of the region, pushing a
boundary into the Brush Country and/or The Victoria Crossroads which
thunderstorms then fire along late in the afternoon or in the
evening. Tonight, that`s pretty much what we are expecting with the
complex that is brewing up near DFW, and it moves SE into the HGX
and EWX CWA. The question is whether the boundary with the current
complex can push this far south. Most of the models keep the main
area of thunderstorms north of the forecast area, with some of it
getting in the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads
regions. The main movement with the system is expected to be east,
but whether the cold pool will fire off any more thunder south of
the main system is the unknown. ECMWF and the ARW say yes. The
GFS/NAM/NAMDNG/SREF say no. The FV3/HRRR says yes, but later than
the ECMWF and ARW. So Bumped up the pops and sped things up. Not
expecting much in the way of an increase in pops around VCT until
around 04/Fri as the boundary and the storms move south. Any
thunderstorms that get into the region should be done by 12z/Fri.
Friday, the morning should clear out, but with a slight more south
boundary from today, the chances for thunderstorms moves up in time
to around 00z/Sat.  So the main concern on Friday is an Elevated
heat Risk for Friday afternoon. Considering that we reached 110F
heat index earlier in the day than expected today, the expectation
is that the same area will need to have an advisory for Friday as we
reach 110F around noon, and it would last through 3 or 4 pm (21z).
The area where the temperatures and RH combine to the 110F threshold
is the Brush Country and the Southern Coastal Bend, as the northern
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads remain in the 100-109F range
through the day. So that leaves the Thunder threat. SPC has a Slight
Risk (2 of 5) getting as far south, as a line from COT to PKV and
areas north, with a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) along a line from
northern Webb county to Freer to Rockport. We are capped, but
marginally, so if something were to go off, we could see another
wind producing storm. The SBCAPE is around 2900J/kg, with a SBCIN of
-7 J/kg. So if the boundary can provide some modest lift than
something could get going. It probably will move in from The north,
and skim through the region along the northern boarder as the very
strong cap to the south will probably squash most of the convection
as it head into Deep South Texas. Friday night looks to be quiet, if
nothing gets going as the inversion looks to be fairly strong.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Extreme heat related impacts continue this week
through the middle of next week.

A mid-level ridge remains over Mexico through early next week.
Showers (15-30%) may linger Saturday as a shortwave move along the
periphery of the ridge to our north before ending Saturday night. A
few showers and thunderstorms may be triggered by another shortwave
Saturday night/Sunday, but chances are low (10%-20%) as most of the
support looks to stay north of the area.

Hot and humid temperatures will continue through the weekend and
further warming into next week.  Heat index values will reach 110-
114 over the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains this weekend,
with other locations ranging from 105-109. Heat Advisories will be
necessary should this continue as expected. By Tuesday, expect
portions of the Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend to
experience heat indices of 115 or greater, which will lead to
Excessive Heat Warnings. The rest of the area will experience heat
indices of 105 to 114, resulting in widespread Heat Advisories.
Please use caution if you are outside. Remember to protect yourself
by wearing light colored clothing, take frequent breaks and drink
plenty of water. And don`t forget your pets!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

We continue under the same basic pattern as the last few days for
South Texas. Confidence is low for convection to get south enough
to affect the region. However, there is some chance (20-30%) for
Showers and thunderstorms to move into the northern Brush Country
and the Victoria Crossroads. Otherwise, the steady southeast flow
will continue over South Texas with the humidity and smoke from
the agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America producing
haze by day, and occasionally fog overnight. So far, the last
couple of nights, the VSBYs and CIGs have remained MVFR. So, the
expectation starting this evening would be haze getting into MVFR,
and lowering CIGs, then sometime after 06z/Fri fog maybe getting
to IFR, but thing mainly MVFR, with the CIGs remaining MVFR
overnight. Convection, around 20% chance will be around VCT early
Friday morning, before clearing out again for the afternoon, and
expect that flight categories go back to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through early
next week. Winds will become moderate to occasionally strong over
the southern bays and nearshore waters each afternoon. There is a
low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  81  93 /  20  10  20  10
Victoria          77  92  78  93 /  40  20  30  30
Laredo            79 101  80 101 /  10   0  20  10
Alice             77  96  79  97 /  20  10  20  10
Rockport          80  91  81  90 /  20  20  30  20
Cotulla           78 100  80 100 /  20  10  30  10
Kingsville        79  95  80  95 /  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       82  91  83  91 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>245-
     342>344.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...JSL