Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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737 FXUS64 KCRP 300748 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 248 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Key Messages: - Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today through Friday (northern counties). - Moderate risk of rip currents through Friday. As expected another weak shortwave is transitioning across South Texas this morning leading to a few showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Although the convective activity should remain very isolated over our area through daybreak, a few elevated storms may still be able to develop as there is very high instability and enough moisture in place. Aside from this, only slight PoPs are in the forecast through Friday, although yet another weak impulse is progged to move over Central Texas tonight. Models have been very unreliable over the past several days in regards to the location of the convective development and impact. So, with this in mind, went ahead and capped PoPs at 30% through the period as it seems like the better energy associated to this next disturbance will stay north of the area. Having said that, SPC has maintained a Marginal risk of severe weather across the northern half of the CWA today through Friday. We will continue to monitor for needed updates to the forecast as the system unfold. Temperatures will be a degree or so warmer today and Friday, with highs in the mid 80s to near 101. Maximum heat index values will generally remain below 110, therefore have refrained from issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. However, a few locations may still experience values up to 112-114 over portions of the Coastal Bend, but with a very short duration. Overnight lows will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s areawide. A Moderate risk of rip currents remains in effect through Friday along area beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Extreme heat related impacts continue this week through the middle of next week. - Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Friday Night Overall, not much change to the long-term forecast. A mid-level ridge will remain parked over Mexico through early next week before amplifying over the Rockies by mid week. A short wave trough will travel around the periphery of this ridge and over South Central Texas Friday Night, skirting across our NE CWA bringing our next chance for convection. With CAPEs progged to be 2500-3000 j/kg and 0- 6km shear around 40 knots, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out. SPC currently has northern portions of our CWA in a Marginal Risk. Will indicate a low chance (20-30%) PoPs for the Friday Night to Saturday morning time period as there is some uncertainty on how far south this system could track. The next shortwave is progged to move across Central Texas Saturday Night. Although some vorticity may drag across our northern CWA a majority of the guidance keeps us dry. Will have to monitor this feature over the next few days for any changes. Otherwise, unseasonably hot, hazy and humid conditions will continue. Afternoon highs will range from the 90-105 degree range. Heat indices will mainly hover between 105-110 the remainder of this week and into next week. Heat advisory conditions will be possible each day next week with a potential for Excessive Heat Warnings Tue or Wed. If you must go outdoors, remember to protect yourself by wearing light colored clothing, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions is ongoing across area terminals. All sites are forecast to drop into MVFR levels over the next few hours, with these conditions lasting through the mid-morning hours. VFR is expected thereafter, but MVFR conditions may return again in the evening. Winds will be light out of the ESE-SE overnight, then become breezy with gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Breezy conditions will linger through the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Generally weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through early next week. Winds will become moderate to occasionally strong over the southern bays and nearshore waters each afternoon. There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 79 92 81 / 10 10 20 30 Victoria 92 77 91 77 / 20 20 30 30 Laredo 101 79 101 80 / 10 10 10 20 Alice 96 78 96 79 / 10 10 20 30 Rockport 91 80 91 81 / 10 20 20 30 Cotulla 100 79 100 80 / 10 20 10 30 Kingsville 95 80 95 81 / 10 10 20 20 Navy Corpus 91 81 91 83 / 10 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM/88 LONG TERM....JM/75 AVIATION...ANM/88