257
FXUS64 KCRP 301806
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
106 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today through Friday
  (northern counties).

- Moderate risk of rip currents through Friday.

As expected another weak shortwave is transitioning across South
Texas this morning leading to a few showers and thunderstorms
over portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Although the convective
activity should remain very isolated over our area through
daybreak, a few elevated storms may still be able to develop as
there is very high instability and enough moisture in place.
Aside from this, only slight PoPs are in the forecast through
Friday, although yet another weak impulse is progged to move over
Central Texas tonight. Models have been very unreliable over the
past several days in regards to the location of the convective
development and impact. So, with this in mind, went ahead and
capped PoPs at 30% through the period as it seems like the better
energy associated to this next disturbance will stay north of the
area. Having said that, SPC has maintained a Marginal risk of
severe weather across the northern half of the CWA today through
Friday. We will continue to monitor for needed updates to the
forecast as the system unfold.

Temperatures will be a degree or so warmer today and Friday, with
highs in the mid 80s to near 101. Maximum heat index values will
generally remain below 110, therefore have refrained from issuing
a Heat Advisory at this time. However, a few locations may still
experience values up to 112-114 over portions of the Coastal
Bend, but with a very short duration. Overnight lows will range
from the mid 70s to the low 80s areawide. A Moderate risk of rip
currents remains in effect through Friday along area beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Extreme heat related impacts continue this week
  through the middle of next week.

- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Friday Night

Overall, not much change to the long-term forecast.  A mid-level
ridge will remain parked over Mexico through early next week before
amplifying over the Rockies by mid week. A short wave trough will
travel around the periphery of this ridge and over South Central
Texas Friday Night, skirting across our NE CWA bringing our next
chance for convection. With CAPEs progged to be 2500-3000 j/kg and 0-
6km shear around 40 knots, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out.
SPC currently has northern portions of our CWA in a Marginal Risk.
Will indicate a low chance (20-30%) PoPs for the Friday Night to
Saturday morning time period as there is some uncertainty on how far
south this system could track.

The next shortwave is progged to move across Central Texas Saturday
Night. Although some vorticity may drag across our northern CWA a
majority of the guidance keeps us dry.  Will have to monitor this
feature over the next few days for any changes.

Otherwise, unseasonably hot, hazy and humid conditions will continue.
Afternoon highs will range from the 90-105 degree range.  Heat
indices will mainly hover between 105-110 the remainder of this week
and into next week. Heat advisory conditions will be possible each
day next week with a potential for Excessive Heat Warnings Tue or
Wed.

If you must go outdoors, remember to protect yourself by wearing
light colored clothing, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of
water.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

We continue under the same basic pattern as the last few days for
South Texas. Confidence is low for convection to get south enough
to affect the region. However, there is some chance (20-30%) for
Showers and thunderstorms to move into the northern Brush Country
and the Victoria Crossroads. Otherwise, the steady southeast flow
will continue over South Texas with the humidity and smoke from
the agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America producing
haze by day, and occasionally fog overnight. So far, the last
couple of nights, the VSBYs and CIGs have remained MVFR. So, the
expectation starting this evening would be haze getting into MVFR,
and lowering CIGs, then sometime after 06z/Fri fog maybe getting
to IFR, but thing mainly MVFR, with the CIGs remaining MVFR
overnight. Convection, around 20% chance will be around VCT early
Friday morning, before clearing out again for the afternoon, and
expect that flight categories go back to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through
early next week. Winds will become moderate to occasionally strong
over the southern bays and nearshore waters each afternoon. There
is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  92  81  93 /  10  10  30  20
Victoria          77  91  77  92 /  20  20  30  30
Laredo            79 101  80 102 /  10   0  20  10
Alice             78  96  79  96 /  20  10  30  10
Rockport          80  91  81  91 /  20  10  30  20
Cotulla           79 100  80 100 /  20  10  30  10
Kingsville        80  95  81  94 /  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       81  91  83  91 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...JSL/86