305
FXUS64 KCRP 231125
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
625 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Key Messages:

 Dangerous Heat Continues

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue today and tonight before a
ridge starts to build into the region Friday. A major to extreme
risk of heat-related impacts will continue today and tomorrow. Well
above-average highs combined with high dewpoints will lead to
miserable heat indices, ranging from 105-113 degrees today and 109-
118 degrees tomorrow afternoon. Areas across the northern Coastal
Bend and Victoria Crossroads will have a major risk of heat-related
impacts affecting anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration today and tomorrow. All other areas of South Texas will
have an extreme risk of heat-related impacts which is rare and/or
long-duration with little to no overnight relief affecting anyone
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration today and
tomorrow. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in effect for most of
the Coastal Plains and all of the Brush Country and Rio Grande
Plains with a medium to high chance for this same area to reach or
surpass excessive heat criteria (heat index of 115 degrees or higher)
tomorrow afternoon. Southeast winds around 20 knots and wave heights
of 4-5 feet today through Friday south of Port Aransas will promote a
 moderate risk of rip currents. Beaches north of Port Aransas can
expect a low risk of rip currents as winds are expected to be
slightly weaker.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme heat related impacts can be expected through the
weekend and into Memorial Day.

Synopsis: The overall 500 mb pattern has, for the most part,
transitioned to a zonal pattern across northern Mexico, Texas and
east off the Atlantic coast. This 500 mb pattern will persist until
about Saturday when 500 mb pattern begins to ridge over Texas which
looks to last through Memorial Day. Tuesday and Wednesday, The
models are still showing some weak troughing and the highs "cool" by
about 5 degrees F to go from near 105F in the Brush Country to
around 100F. The difference between the weekend and
Tuesday/Wednesday is that the dewpoints fall. With the lowering of
the temperatures and the dewpoints, our heat risk lowers.

Forecast details: The main issue through the 7 day forecast will be
the heat risk. While our expectation is for the possibility for heat
indices of 115f or greater in the Brush Country, the most widespread
instance will occur on Saturday, when 115f or greater will occur
west of a line from Kingsville to Live Oak. Sunday, the dry line
makes a move east and roughly reaches US-281, which despite the high
temperatures reaching 105-110F west of US-281, the max heat indices
fall due to the dewpoints fall to less than 70F. However, east of US-
281, tee dewpoint remains 75-80 degrees and  high 95-105F allowing a
heat index of 115-120F Mainly south of US-181 with 110-115 north of
there. Sunday night, the dry line retreats to the west, allowing the
70+ dewpoints to creep west. The dryline doesn`t move much to the
east on Memorial Day, which allows the heat index values to rise
above 115F further West than on Sunday. Tuesday, as the 500 mb ridge
moves east, and the winds turn more northerly with a sfc high in the
Red River Valley, our dewpoints are expected to fall below 70F over
most of the region, and Wednesday, even more so. The models are
showing slight chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms from
Monday night through Wednesday, and mainly in the Rio Grande Plains.
not sure about any of the forecast past Memorial Day, as the some
models are showing the moisture remaining in the region through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will be present this morning
before all sites return to VFR by late morning. Winds will
increase today with gusts to 30 knots across some sites. Winds
will decrease about 10-15 knots this evening into tonight as MVFR
conditions slowly return to the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Moderate to strong onshore flow is expected through Friday night
with a low chance for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions (winds
around 20 knots) this afternoon. Seas are expected to remain around
5-6 feet today and tonight before subsiding to 4-5 feet Friday. Moderate
to strong onshore flow each afternoon for Saturday through Monday
across our waters, especially the southern bays and nearshore
waters south of Port Aransas. Weak to moderate onshore flow sets
in on Tuesday as the wind direction shifts to become more
easterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  81  96  80 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          94  78  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           107  81 110  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            100  79 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          91  81  91  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          106  81 109  79 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  80 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       91  83  92  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ229-230-239>243.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...JCP/84