577
FXUS64 KCRP 192242
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
542 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

There`s no more putting it off, we`re settling in to a typically
South Texas summer pattern. Mid-level ridging has built into the
region and will hold strong through the short term. This along
with surface ridging over the Southeast US spells warm and humid
for us here in South Texas. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s
area wide, with upper 70s to near 80 east. High temperatures
Monday are forecast above 100 degrees for the Rio Grande Plains
and western Brush country with mainly 90s for the rest of the
area. Considering the high dewpoints (upper 70s east) and it being
early season, this will mean an elevated concern for heat related
illness, especially for those especially susceptible to the high
heat. No mentionable rain chances are in place, but given the high
humidity and moisture convergence near the coast, can`t rule out a
morning streamer shower or sprinkle on Monday. In addition, the
haze will likely stick around through the early part of the week,
and tomorrow could be combined with some fog, especially in the
northern coastal bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

- Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the week

Upper level ridging and persistent onshore flow will allow for
temperatures to reach dangerous levels through the week. High
temperatures will settle into the low 90s along the coast to around
105 across the Brush Country. Heat indices will climb through the
week. Tuesday through Thursday will feature afternoon heat indices
in the 110-114 range. By Friday, we begin to see heat indices of 115-
120 enter into the forecast for the Southern Coastal Bend and Brush
Country. As a result, we will see a major to extreme risk of heat-
related impacts through the long term period. Heat Advisories will
be likely each day through the middle of the week with Excessive
Heat Warnings possible by the end of the work week.

Other than the heat in the long term, the ridge axis will nudge east
by the middle of the week. Several shortwaves will rotate through
the southwest flow aloft as a boundary stalls north of the region.
The greatest chances for showers/storms will likely remain well
north of the region. Smoke will linger at times through the week as
fires continue to burn to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the this TAF
cycle. Some brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected
tonight at ALI and VCT due to a low chance of patchy fog
developing tonight. Any site that drops to MVFR should return to
VFR by tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected tonight
through Tuesday Onshore flow then become more moderate by
Tuesday night, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon across the southern bays and nearshore waters.
Smoke will linger at times through the week as fires continue to
burn to our south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  77  93  78 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          92  73  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           101  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             96  75  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          88  78  89  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          100  76 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  76  94  77 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       88  80  90  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...JCP/84