Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
001 FXUS64 KCRP 272340 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 640 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Goodness gracious, great balls of fire! It is HOT today. Heat index values are currently ranging from 113-117 across South Texas. Temperatures will remain elevated into the evening, so continue to be careful out there tonight. The good news is that temperatures should break a little for tomorrow with heat index values at most locations staying below 114. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this evening as convection moves across the Rio Grande. While confidence is not high that storms will actually make it across the river, should they hold together, they could be strong to severe. Those over the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush Country should be careful to monitor their weather this evening. The ridge aloft will be squashed overnight and Tuesday, allowing shortwaves to move across the northern area. This could introduce some convection for Tuesday. There is only a low to moderate (15%-40%) chance of convection but any storms could become strong to severe. SPC has included our northwestern area in a Slight Risk of severe weather, with a Marginal Risk elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to extreme heat related impacts can be expected Wednesday through Sunday. On Wednesday, the models (GFS and ECMWF) have a 500 mb ridge over central Texas with a shortwave trough riding along it. The models each kick off a complex of storms with each causing some sort of feedback that pushes the storms in a different direction than the other. Since this is either past or near past the end of the CAMs, they are of no help, with the NAM having a third solution from hrs 60 through 84 on the 12z runs. The ECMWF has a thunderstorm complex that kicks off Wednesday afternoon, which seems like it is forcing a cold pool boundary to fire convection through South Texas and into Deep South Texas. The GFS moves all of the thunderstorms northeast east, and we are done. The NAM idea is pretty much dry over the region through the 24 hours. So have gone with the NBM with its 20- 35% chance during the day on Wednesday and 20-25% Wednesday night. One of the complicating factors is that the ridge and shortwaves impact on temperatures. Looking through the guidance, the GFS is on the high side with 105F in the Brush Country, and 100 or less on the GFS. The NAM is around the NBM. However, if the GFS is right then if could be warmer, and if the ECMWF is right it could be cooler. Thursday and Thursday night look like things could be the same as Wednesday with the NBM warming up a degree or two. The same looks for Friday and Friday night (thunderstorms in the afternoon, 95-100F temperatures, and 100-110F Heat Indices). This pattern with a squashed ridge that allows thunderstorms, and continues with high indices looks like it will continue into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 CRP/ALI/VCT: Borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings are making their way into the Coastal Plains. Expect MVFR conditions to prevail from 03-16Z across these sites with a medium chance of IFR ceilings over ALI/VCT from 10-14Z. Haze will persist through the TAF period, causing vsby to drop to 4-6SM. A mix of patchy fog and haze may reduce visibility as low as 3SM early in the morning. Southeasterly winds around 12 knots will diminish tonight, then increase to 12 gusting to 20 knots in the late morning to afternoon hours. COT/LRD: Storms have developed north of San Antonio and over Mexico along the Sierra Madres, with light showers in advance. Confidence is very low that this activity will make it east of the Rio Grande and impact LRD/COT but if storms do maintain, they bring a threat of strong winds and large hail. Therefore, did not want to remove the mention of TSRA in COT/LRD completely; but knowing the history of convection development like this, they have the tendency to diminish by the time they reach the Rio Grande. We`ll keep a close eye and amend if necessary. Otherwise, a few hours in the morning between 11-16Z of MVFR ceilings and hazy conditions are expected. Southeasterly winds around 12 knots gusting to around 20 knots will weaken later tonight through tomorrow morning, returning tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There will be a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each day from Wednesday through the end of the work week, mainly across the Gulf waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 94 80 93 / 10 10 20 30 Victoria 77 95 77 91 / 10 10 20 40 Laredo 80 103 78 100 / 20 20 30 20 Alice 78 98 78 95 / 10 10 20 30 Rockport 80 91 81 90 / 0 10 20 30 Cotulla 79 101 78 98 / 20 20 40 20 Kingsville 79 96 79 94 / 10 10 20 20 Navy Corpus 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>232-239>244. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ233-234-245>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM....JSL AVIATION...EMF/94