858
FXUS64 KCRP 152043
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
343 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Key Messages:

 Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorm tonight and
  tomorrow

 Medium to high chance of moderate to major risk of heat-related
  impacts tomorrow

A warm and sunny afternoon will continue before cloud cover and rain
chances increase this evening into tonight. A few hi-res models led
by the HRRR are showing convection developing this evening over
Mexico and crossing the border into the Rio Grande Plains this
evening after sunset. While chances are low that this activity will
make past the Brush Country, included a 20% chance of precipitation
tonight across the Coastal Plains into the Coastal Bend. As these
storms cross the border, there is a low chance that these storms
could become strong to severe, thus prompting SPC to highlight the
Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country under a Marginal Risk of severe
weather. A shortwave will sweep across the Southern Plains tomorrow
ejecting a weak cold front into Texas. Nevertheless, storms are
expected to develop along the front as it moves southward with
models showing an MCS moving into our CWA and impacting the
Victoria Crossroads, where SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe
weather for tomorrow afternoon. While storms develop north of of
the CWA and move southward, there is also a low chance for showers
and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front across the
Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend.

Daytime highs tomorrow are going to be highly dependent of the
development of precipitation and cloud cover. If cloud cover is less
than expected, then warmer temperatures can be felt, while if cloud
cover is more then highs will be lower. Along with the warm
temperatures expected tomorrow, dew points in the upper 70s to lower
80s will lead to miserable heat indices tomorrow across the southern
Coastal Plains, southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country with a
moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. Overnight lows will
remain mild with only a slight cool down into the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of Severe Storms Friday across the
  Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend.

- A moderate to major risk of heat related impacts Monday through
  Wednesday across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.

Models are in good agreement with a long wave trough tracking
eastward across western portions of Texas on Friday and pushing a
dryline/surface trough into S TX. The surface trough will provide
strong low level convergence across the area. CAPE is forecast to be
up to 4400J/kg across the Coastal Bend along with deepening moisture
with PWATs of 1.8 to 2 inches across the northern Coastal Bend. The
upper level energy ahead of the upper trough will increase through
Friday as a 105-110 knot upper level jet nudges across the area and
increases the upper level diffluence across S TX. The combination of
these features will be conducive for strong, possibly severe storms
on Friday. Therefore, the Storms Prediction Center has a marginal
risk of severe weather on Friday across the northern Coastal Bend
and Victoria Crossroads.

The uncertainty is how strong the cap will be and how long it will
take to weaken across the northeastern CWA. Across the south and
west portions of the CWA, it is expected to be drier and more
capped, thus a much lower chance of severe storms across those areas.

Overall, the chance of any storms developing Friday is low to medium
(20-30%), mainly eastern CWA.

Behind the trough, a ridge will build across TX leading to drier
conditions and increasingly hot temperatures. In the low levels, the
humidity is progged to increase early next week leading to Heat
Index values approaching 110 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains
and western Brush Country by Monday and continuing through the
middle of next week. This could lead to a moderate to major risk of
heat related impacts across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.
Heat Advisories may be needed across the western CWA Mon-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue today through this
evening. Clouds will begin increase after midnight with sites
transitioning to MVFR, with a low chance of IFR conditions at ALI
and VCT. There is a medium chance of patchy to localized dense
fog developing at ALI and VCT, therefore, went with a tempo at
this time. If fog does develop, it should dissipate by 14/15z
tomorrow morning. The expectation is that MVFR ceilings will hang
around through 18z tomorrow, however, there is a low chance that
sites could improve to VFR by the 16-18z tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Moderate onshore flow tonight around 15-17 knots will increase to
moderate to strong levels tomorrow between 17-19 knots before
decreasing back to weaker levels under 15 knots tomorrow night.
There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms across
the local waters tomorrow with the best chances across the northern
bays and offshore waters. If a storm does develop, there is a low
chance they can become strong enough to produce gusts to 34-40
knots. A low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue
through the weekend, with periods of more moderate flow expected
early next week across the southern bays and nearshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  92  78  92 /  20  30   0  20
Victoria          72  89  73  87 /  10  60  20  20
Laredo            78 102  77  98 /  20   0  10  20
Alice             76  94  75  94 /  20  30  10  30
Rockport          78  87  78  88 /  10  30  10  20
Cotulla           77  97  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
Kingsville        78  93  77  92 /  20  20  10  30
Navy Corpus       80  89  80  90 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...JCP