228
FXUS64 KCRP 230440
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1140 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Key Messages:
- Moderate to Major Heat Risk Thursday

The upper pattern over nearly all of the CONUS will remain
progressive during the period, with the CWA remaining under the
influence of a flat upper ridge (deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF).
The GFS/NAM maintain PWAT values slightly above normal during the
period. The combination of near surface moisture and hot
temperatures will result in maximum Heat Index values in the
100-112 degree range Thursday. Will defer to the mid shift to
determine specific counties to include in the Heat Advisory.
Spectral density at 42019/42020 suggest swell periods below 8
seconds. However, the combination of 15-20kt onshore flow over the
offshore waters (wind direction from 140 or 150 degrees) and the
nearness to the full moon suggest a Moderate risk of rip currents
for the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. Will update the
SRF to indicate such. Will retain a low risk for Thursday as wind
directions may be more alongshore (150-160 degrees.) The P-ETSS
predicts that water levels may approach the threshold for minor
coastal flooding at Aransas Pass during the next few high hide
cycles beginning early Thursday morning. However, not yet
confident to hoist a CFW for minor flooding since also prefer at
least 8 second periods.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Key Messages:
- Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the
weekend and into early next week.

The overall weather pattern for the long-term period remains mostly
unchanged with minimal chances for precipitation. A few minor
shortwaves are expected over the next couple of days, but there is
not much in terms of a decent lifting mechanism for the available
moisture (PWATs ranging between 1.25-1.75 inches). Negligible POPs
are forecasted through Monday.

The dominant weather topic this period continues to be the heat. The
upper-level pattern will shift to a more quasi-zonal flow through
Monday with a slight ridge and high-pressure center over Mexico
remaining across the region. This will result in rising temperatures
over the weekend due to continued southwesterly flow aloft, with
850mb temperatures approaching 23-30 degC (around the 99th
percentile for this time of year). Some of this warmer air aloft
will mix down to the surface, leading to increasingly hotter
temperatures. Surface temperatures will range from the 90s along the
coast to the upper 90s into the 100s west of HWY-77. Additionally,
moderate to strong onshore flow will continue to bring moisture from
the Gulf inland, resulting in heat index values reaching Heat
Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Overnight temperatures
will provide little relief, with near record to record breaking
overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Expect daily Heat
Advisories from Friday to Monday for much of the CWA, with a medium
to high (40-70%) probability of Excessive Heat Warnings from
Saturday to Monday for portions of the Brush Country and Southern
Coastal Plains. With all this in mind, the WPC has most of the
region outlined in an Extreme Heat Risk (level 4 out of 4) with a
Major Heat Risk (level 3 out of 4) along our coastal areas for
Friday through Monday.

Since the Memorial Day Holiday weekend is approaching, I`m sure many
of you have outdoor activities planned. Please practice heat safety
by staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks from the sun, avoiding
strenuous outdoor activities, wearing loose and lightweight
clothing, recognizing the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion,
and ALWAYS checking your vehicle before locking it. Remember your
pets too during this warm spell by bringing them inside and
providing them with plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check
local media and government websites for cooling center locations and
hours.

While the heat is expected to persist into early next week, some
"relief" may arrive shortly after. Global deterministic models are
still hinting that an upper-level low might push far enough south to
bring a boundary and a low chance (10-20%) for showers into South
Texas at the tail end of the long-term period. This is still several
days out and subject to chance, but if it occurs, expect only a
slight "cooldown" of a few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

MVFR ceilings will move inland tonight and spread across most of
South Texas, questionable if it`ll extend into the Rio Grande
Plains. Winds around 12 knots tonight will limit most if not all fog
development, however haze will continue to impact occasionally
through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds increase tomorrow with
southeasterly winds sustained around 20 knots and gusts around 30
knots in the afternoon. There is a 60-80 percent chance for MVFR
ceilings to develop near the end of the TAF period over the Coastal
Plains impacting CRP/VCT/ALI.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Strong onshore flow expected over the southern bays and
intracoastal waterways late this afternoon/evening owing to the
enhanced MSLP gradient. Otherwise, expect periods of moderate to
strong onshore flow each afternoon for Thursday through Monday
across our waters, especially the southern bays and nearshore
waters south of Port Aransas. Weak to moderate onshore flow sets
in on Tuesday as the wind direction shifts to become more
easterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  80  94  80 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          91  78  93  78 /   0  10   0   0
Laredo           106  80 105  81 /   0  10   0   0
Alice             96  78  98  78 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          90  80  90  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          104  80 103  80 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        96  79  96  78 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       88  81  90  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...EMF/94