Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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193 FXUS61 KCTP 310913 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 513 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of Canadian high pressure will drift southeast from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region and become centered over Pennsylvania tonight into Saturday. The high will move off the Eastern Seaboard by late this weekend allowing showers to spread into the region Sunday ahead of a weakening cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Clear, calm air and anomalously low PWAT values of only 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch provided us with a late bout of frost and even a several spots of freezing temps as noted on the regional meso network (namely near Brandy Camp in Elk County, Rew in McKean Cty and around Dushore in Sullivan County). A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 12Z today and its conceivable we`ll see a 30 or 31F before the early morning cooling is done as these higher mountain valleys are experiencing little or no fog that would limit a further drop in temps. 1025 MB surface high over Ohio and Western PA at daybreak will shift very slowly to the east over the next 24 to 36 hours and bring 2 splendid days to close out May and kick off the first Summer month of June. Light wind, abundant sunshine and low dewpoints will allow for a large temp range today with afternoon highs 30 to 35 degrees above the readings to start the day. Highs will vary from the upper 60s across the high terrain of the north and west to the mid 70s in the Central and Southern Valleys. Clear skies and light wind once again tonight will lead to chilly temps ranging through the 40s, with some upper 30s possible in the perennial cold spots in Northern PA and the Laurel Highlands. Any frost early Sunday morning would be light, highly isolated and limited to the high valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Forecast for Saturday is in good shape with just some minor tweaks to temps and dewpoints. Surface and upper level ridging will crest over PA Saturday morning, resulting in a mostly sunny and warmer start to the weekend. GEFS 2m temp anomalies Sat afternoon are few degrees above climo, translating to highs of 75-80 over most of Central PA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Late evening update holds very few changes. Not enough to mention here, at least. Thursday still looks like the best day to get wet. Prev... A shortwave trough moving through the region late Saturday night into Sunday. This feature will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to central PA. Longer range guidance shows multiple shortwaves moving through the region into the middle of next week bringing renewed chances for showers and storms. PoPs have decreased for Monday, which now looks like it will be a generally dry day. Chance or greater PoPs return for Tue-Thu. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Looking at mainly clear skies and VFR conditions prior to late Saturday night, as high pressure builds over the area. Some lower conditions into the far west Sunday morning, as higher dewpoints are advected eastward. Outlook... Sat...Mainly clear skies with VFR conditions. Sun-Tue...Showers and thunderstorms possible. && .CLIMATE... Will be sending out 2 AM climate data here shortly, low for IPT was around 50 degrees for Thursday, not the 36 as noted earlier. Earlier information below. WILLIAMSPORT: A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 36 DEGREES WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 37 DEGREES SET IN 1949. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006- 010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen CLIMATE...Martin