193
FXUS61 KCTP 310913
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
513 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of Canadian high pressure will drift southeast from
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region and become centered over
Pennsylvania tonight into Saturday.

The high will move off the Eastern Seaboard by late this
weekend allowing showers to spread into the region Sunday ahead
of a weakening cold front.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear, calm air and anomalously low PWAT values of only 0.2 to
0.4 of an inch provided us with a late bout of frost and even a
several spots of freezing temps as noted on the regional meso
network (namely near Brandy Camp in Elk County, Rew in McKean
Cty and around Dushore in Sullivan County).

A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 12Z today and its
conceivable we`ll see a 30 or 31F before the early morning
cooling is done as these higher mountain valleys are
experiencing little or no fog that would limit a further drop in
temps.

1025 MB surface high over Ohio and Western PA at daybreak will
shift very slowly to the east over the next 24 to 36 hours and
bring 2 splendid days to close out May and kick off the first
Summer month of June.

Light wind, abundant sunshine and low dewpoints will allow for a
large temp range today with afternoon highs 30 to 35 degrees
above the readings to start the day. Highs will vary from the
upper 60s across the high terrain of the north and west to the
mid 70s in the Central and Southern Valleys.

Clear skies and light wind once again tonight will lead to
chilly temps ranging through the 40s, with some upper 30s
possible in the perennial cold spots in Northern PA and the
Laurel Highlands. Any frost early Sunday morning would be light,
highly isolated and limited to the high valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Forecast for Saturday is in good shape with just some minor
tweaks to temps and dewpoints.

Surface and upper level ridging will crest over PA Saturday
morning, resulting in a mostly sunny and warmer start to the
weekend. GEFS 2m temp anomalies Sat afternoon are few degrees
above climo, translating to highs of 75-80 over most of Central
PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late evening update holds very few changes. Not enough to
mention here, at least. Thursday still looks like the best day
to get wet.

Prev...
A shortwave trough moving through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This feature will bring the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms to central PA.

Longer range guidance shows multiple shortwaves moving through
the region into the middle of next week bringing renewed chances
for showers and storms. PoPs have decreased for Monday, which
now looks like it will be a generally dry day. Chance or greater
PoPs return for Tue-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Looking at mainly clear skies and VFR conditions prior to late
Saturday night, as high pressure builds over the area.

Some lower conditions into the far west Sunday morning, as
higher dewpoints are advected eastward.

Outlook...

Sat...Mainly clear skies with VFR conditions.

Sun-Tue...Showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Will be sending out 2 AM climate data here shortly, low for
IPT was around 50 degrees for Thursday, not the 36 as noted
earlier.

Earlier information below.

WILLIAMSPORT: A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 36 DEGREES WAS SET AT
WILLIAMSPORT PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD
OF 37 DEGREES SET IN 1949.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen
CLIMATE...Martin