992
FXUS61 KCTP 280553
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
153 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep storm system over eastern Canada will bring cooler
temperatures to the region into mid week. There will be a chance
of showers from time to time over the next few days, but much
of the time will be rain free. A warming trend will set in for
late in the week, with a chance of showers by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The threat of severe weather has ended across the region.
Isolated showers will be possible still, as colder air works
into the region.

Temperatures over the far southeast will be slow to cool off,
as the front is just into central areas as of late evening.

Winds have weaken the last few hours, but will likely kick up
at times, as the cooler air works into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level trough rotating around a deep upper level low
over eastern Hudson Bay will bring cooler temperatures to the
Keystone state on Tuesday. Expect winds to pick up and clouds
to increase, as the strong late May sun heats up the airmass.

Least likely area to see showers on Tuesday will be the southeast.
An isolated thunderstorm will be possible.

Temps may peak only in the low 60s across the highest terrain
of the north and west with 70s in the Central and Southern
Valleys.

Westerly winds will frequently gust into the upper teens to low
20s (KTS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Below normal temperatures will prevail into Thursday, with
mainly dry conditions.

A warming trend will set in for late week, with a chance of
showers by the weekend into early next weekend.

The activity looks to be weaker and less widespread in nature
than in recent weeks, as the airmass will be much cooler and
less humid than in recent days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conds have been observed as of 05Z Tuesday and
expect this trend to continue overnight outside of the western
highlands with high (> 80%) confidence.

The main concern overnight will be lower cigs across the
western highlands (BFD/JST) and the potential for an isolated
shower across NW PA (BFD). The bulk of recent guidance is in
agreement that MVFR restrictions will prevail at BFD for a
majority of the TAF period with the main disagreement on how
cigs resolve in the 06Z-07Z Tuesday timeframe. At JST, generally
expect cigs to stay above MVFR thresholds for the majority of
the overnight period with breezy winds and some low-level dry
air outlined on model soundings but bounces towards high-end
MVFR conds cannot be ruled out, especially between 06-09Z Tue.

Scattered showers are expected during the morning and afternoon
hours with highest confidence in SHRA at airfields across NW
PA. This TAF package outlines best timing for SHRA at BFD/JST
while keeping VCSH across AOO/UNV/IPT where confidence on any
rainfall making it to the airfields are slightly lower due to
low-level dry air in recent model soundings. Restrictions look
more likely tomorrow night, especially in areas where SHRA does
manage to fall, thus have started to trend conds downward at
BFD/JST after 03Z Wednesday despite low-to-moderate (30-40%)
confidence at this time.

Outlook...

Wed...Brief restrictions are possible in scattered showers, but
much of the time should be VFR.

Thu-Sat...Predominantly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...NPB