328
FXUS61 KCTP 281134
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
734 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Scattered showers/t-storms become more numerous on Wednesday
*Seasonably cool and mostly dry for late week to close out May
*Above average temperatures return into the first week of June

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
720AM/1120Z: Minor adjustment to sky cover and dewpoints early
this morning based on the latest satellite and sfc obs. A couple
of light rain showers are already tracking east southeast or
downwind of Lake Erie into the NW mtns.

Previous Discussion Issued: 520 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Lead shortwave embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the
Northeast U.S. will combine with diurnal heating to trigger
isolated to scattered non-severe convection over CPA this
afternoon and evening. Max POPs are over the NW Alleghenies and
trend lower into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Look for a mix of
clouds and sun today with a westerly breeze gusting up to 30
mph. Highs will range from 65-80F from northwest to southeast.

Showers fade through the evening with mainly dry conditions
expected tonight. Focus will shift to more potent upstream
disturbance rotating into the Upper Ohio Valley by 12Z Wed.
Min temps will be in the low to mid 50s or near to slightly
above (+5F) late May climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Short-range model consensus continues to signal the greatest
coverage of showers and t-storms will be Wednesday afternoon
into the the evening. Stronger shortwave rotating along the MD
line will couple with steeper lapse rates/more instability
(thanks to abnormally cool 700mb temps) to promote numerous
showers/t-storms especially over south central PA. The diurnally
enhanced convection will fade/shift to the east Wednesday
night. Final shortwave digs southeastward from the lower Great
Lakes with 500mb heights bottoming out on Thursday. A couple of
showers are possible Thursday afternoon beneath the upper trough
axis, but lower pwat air being directed into the region via NNW
low level flow should keep most places dry. Seasonably strong
high pressure dome migrates eastward Thursday night into early
Friday morning which will support the drying trend through late
week or the end of May. Temperatures will be seasonably cool for
this time of year with the largest departures from climo (-5 to
10F) Thursday-Thursday night. Min temps could dip into the upper
30s in the NW mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Below normal temperatures will prevail through late week with
mainly dry conditions. Low temps will bottom Friday night.

A warming trend is expected over the weekend with a slight
increase in shower/t-storm potential Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Outside of NW PA, widespread VFR conds are expected to continue
throughout the day across much of central PA with high (>80%)
confidence. Across NW PA, MVFR cigs at best are expected with
moderate (50-60%) confidence through 12Z Wednesday with conds
dipping towards IFR/LIFR thresholds after 03Z Wednesday. Breezy
westerly winds (10-15KT with gusts upwards 25KT) are expected
throughout the daylight hours areawide and are expected to
become lighter after sunset.

Scattered showers are expected during the morning and afternoon
hours with highest confidence in SHRA at airfields across NW
PA. Isolated TSRA is possible this afternoon and evening, but
confidence remains too low (< 20%) to include mentions at any of
the terminals as of 12Z Tuesday. There is also less confidence
at MDT/LNS on how close rainfall makes it to the terminals, so
have opted to keep mentions out of the 12Z TAF package.

Restrictions look increasingly likely tomorrow night with
higher confidence where rain falls today and wind become light
overnight. At this time, have trended cigs downwards at BFD/JST
with recent guidance suggesting LIFR conds. Have opted to keep
IFR mentions out of AOO/IPT/UNV due to lower confidence at this
time, but trended down towards MVFR where lower cigs are
possible.

Outlook...

Wed...Brief restrictions are possible in scattered showers, but
much of the time should be VFR.

Thu-Sat...Predominantly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Martin
AVIATION...NPB