293
FXUS61 KCTP 281629
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1229 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Scattered showers/t-storms become more numerous on Wednesday
*Seasonably cool and mostly dry for late week to close out May
*Above average temperatures return into the first week of June

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lead shortwave embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the
Northeast U.S. will combine with diurnal heating to expand the
current area of numerous showers drifting SE from the Northern
Mtns this midday hour.

Max POPs through the early-mid afternoon hours are over the NW
Alleghenies and trend lower into the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

However, by 22-23Z, the primary belt of showers will sink south
of Interstate 80 and focused about 30NM north and south of a
like from KAOO to KSEG and KAVP.

Otherwise, look for a mix of clouds and sun today with a
westerly breeze gusting between 25-30 mph. Highs will range
from 65-80F from northwest to southeast.

Showers will gradually diminish through the evening with mainly
dry conditions expected tonight. Focus will shift to more
potent upstream disturbance rotating into the Upper Ohio Valley
by 12Z Wed. Min temps will be in the low to mid 50s or near to
slightly above (+5F) late May climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Short-range model consensus continues to signal the greatest
coverage of showers and t-storms will be Wednesday afternoon
into the the evening. Stronger shortwave rotating along the MD
line will couple with steeper lapse rates/more instability
(thanks to abnormally cool 700mb temps) to promote numerous
showers/t-storms especially over south central PA. The diurnally
enhanced convection will fade/shift to the east Wednesday
night. Final shortwave digs southeastward from the lower Great
Lakes with 500mb heights bottoming out on Thursday. A couple of
showers are possible Thursday afternoon beneath the upper trough
axis, but lower pwat air being directed into the region via NNW
low level flow should keep most places dry. Seasonably strong
high pressure dome migrates eastward Thursday night into early
Friday morning which will support the drying trend through late
week or the end of May. Temperatures will be seasonably cool for
this time of year with the largest departures from climo (-5 to
10F) Thursday-Thursday night. Min temps could dip into the upper
30s in the NW mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Below normal temperatures will prevail through late week with
mainly dry conditions. Low temps will bottom Friday night.

A warming trend is expected over the weekend with a slight
increase in shower/t-storm potential Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Outside of NW PA, widespread VFR conds are expected to continue
throughout the mid afternoon hours across much of Central and
the Susq Region with high (>80%) confidence. Across NW PA, MVFR
cigs at best are expected with moderate (50-60%) confidence
through 12Z Wednesday with conds dipping towards IFR/LIFR
thresholds after 03Z Wednesday. Breezy westerly winds (10-15KT
with gusts upwards 25KT) are expected throughout the daylight
hours areawide and are expected to become lighter after sunset.

Scattered showers are expected to expand to the south across PA
this afternoon with highest confidence in SHRA at airfields
across NW PA through 20Z, then across the Central PA airfields
later this afternoon and early this evening.

Isolated TSRA is possible this afternoon and evening, but
confidence remains too low (< 20%) to include mentions at any of
the terminals as of 12Z Tuesday. There is also less confidence
at MDT/LNS on how close rainfall makes it to the terminals, so
have opted to keep mentions out of the 12Z TAF package.

Restrictions look increasingly likely tomorrow night with
higher confidence where rain falls today and wind become light
overnight. At this time, have trended cigs downwards at BFD/JST
with recent guidance suggesting LIFR conds. Have opted to keep
IFR mentions out of AOO/IPT/UNV due to lower confidence at this
time, but trended down towards MVFR where lower cigs are
possible.

Outlook...

Wed...Brief restrictions are possible in scattered showers, but
much of the time should be VFR.

Thu-Sat...Predominantly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/NPB