837
FXUS61 KCTP 300532
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
132 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Drying trend to end May with below normal temperatures
*Temperatures warm to near normal to start June with rain
 chances increasing into early next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Vortex rolling off to the east, and leaving drying in it`s wake.
Expect the few remaining SHRA to dwindle to nothing in 3-4 hrs.
The wind should stay light and NWrly or go calm. We do see the
start of some dense fog in some of the obs, and have started to
hit fog a little harder in the wx grids filling the valleys. The
clouds out there now will start to be cleared out by the
subsidence. However, some low stratus will be left on the
ridges, esp in the west, through morning. Mins still on track as
the dewpoints shouldn`t drop more than a few degs overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lower PWAT air pouring into the region on Thursday via NNW low
level flow should keep most if not all of the CWA dry. Highs
will again be cooler-than-average with fcst max temps in the
low 60s/70s.

Seasonably strong high pressure dome migrates eastward from the
OH Valley Thursday night into western PA early Friday morning.
This setup should support one of the coolest nights in a while
with low temps in the mid 30s to upper 40s. With light winds and
mainly clear skies across the northern tier, some patchy frost
cannot be completely ruled out.

Center of 1025mb sfc high is parked right overhead by 12Z
Saturday, ensuring the break in the rain continues into the
first weekend of June. Look for max temps to rebound a bit on
the last day of May with highs staying near/below climo. Another
relatively cool night with lows in the 40-50F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Late evening update changes/deviations from National Blend are
rather small/minor. Main change was to lower PoPs 10-20pct on
Tuesday with chc range (30-50) as the top-end (west) and slight
chc in the east. It looks active after for the rest of the
week.

Prev...
Models diverge with the amplitude of a shortwave trough moving
through the region late Saturday night into Sunday. This feature
will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to
central PA.

Longer range guidance shows multiple shortwaves moving through
the region into the middle of next week bringing renewed chances
for showers and storms, but confidence in the timing of these
features is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Looking at a wide range of conditions into mid morning.
Expect a mix of low clouds, mid clouds, and some fog early
on today. A bit of a breeze, dewpoints coming down this
morning, all should limit the potential for fog.

An upper level low will slowly pull away, bring an end to
the showers across the east early this morning.

Dewpoints this afternoon will be about as low as one gets
in late May, early June. Thus looking at mainly clear skies
later today, with very little potential for fog overnight
into Friday morning.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Mainly clear skies with VFR conditions.

Sun-Mon...Showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Martin