Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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727 FXUS65 KCYS 262327 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 527 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds are likely in the wind prone and gap areas of southeast Wyoming early this morning through the mid- afternoon. Please see the latest High Wind Watch Statement for further details. - A much warmer, milder week ahead as an upper-level ridge overtakes the region. - Chances for organized strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 The High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire at the allotted time slot. Winds have gusted to High Wind levels across the Arlington wind prone and the I-80 Summit this afternoon. Winds for the most part of decreased with all sites showing wind gusts hovering in the 50 to 55 mph range. These wind speeds are progged to continue to decrease as the afternoon wears on. With the wind threat decreasing the next focus will be for the development of some isolated thunderstorms across the far northern Nebraska Panhandle later this afternoon and into the evening hours. HI-RES models show a storm or two across Dawes county that could be strong. This thunderstorm activity will be driven by the passing shortwave trough aloft but this feature is expected to quickly move so any thunderstorm activity will be short lived and should be ending by 7pm this evening. Monday will be a very quiet and dry day across the region as upper level ridging builds aloft. Temperatures will rebound nicely during the afternoon with temperatures expected to climb into the 70s across much of the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Extended forecast looks active heading out of the long holiday weekend. Although active, Tuesday will likely be a mild and dry day for most as an upper-level ridge builds over the Rockies. Could see an isolated storm or two develop off the high terrain Tuesday afternoon, but the chance of this looks low. Storm chances look better on Wednesday as an embedded disturbance moves through the ridge. This will likely spark scattered convection mostly for areas east of the Laramie Range. GFS soundings continue to show the potential for severe thunderstorms in the Nebraska panhandle. Soundings show MUCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg and PWs approaching 1 inch. This will lead to a large hail threat and potentially minor isolated flooding. After Wednesday, daily precipitation chances look possible through the end of the week. More disturbance driven storms look possible on Thursday with some weak energy moving across the CWA. Better precipitation chances are possible Friday afternoon and evening as a shortwave drops out of the north. Along with storms, this shortwave will also bring cooler temperatures to the region on Friday. Highs will be below average for the end of May. Headed into the weekend, precipitation chances could still be possible as the shortwave exits out of the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 522 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Northwest flow aloft will continue. Scattered to broken clouds from 7000 to 10000 feet will prevail early this evening, then skies will be clear. Winds will gust to 30 knots at Rawlins and Laramie until 06Z, to 36 knots at Cheyenne and the Nebraska terminals until 03Z, and to 25 knots at all terminals after 15Z Monday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AW LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...RUBIN