453
FXUS65 KCYS 230915
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
315 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong wind gusts 50-60mph possible in the wind prone and gap
  areas of southeast WY today mid-morning through early
  afternoon. See the latest High Wind Warning Statement for
  further details.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the
  long term from Thursday afternoon onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

The approaching cold front has made it through portions of western
and north-central Wyoming as of early this morning. This cold front
will continue to sweep southward through the remainder of today. We
can expect mostly cloudy skies to accompany the cold front, with
light precipitation in our western zones. Light snow showers will
accumulate in elevations above 9000 feet today, but we are not
expecting headline criteria snowfall by any means. Daytime highs in
the Snowy/Sierra Madre mountains will hover near or below the
freezing mark. The cloud cover will cause temperatures to be much
cooler compared to our forecast zones closest to the CO/NE/WY state
line, where high temperatures in the 60s and 70s will be present. It
may be possible for 80 degrees to be attained in Kimball and
Cheyenne County before the cold front moves through these locations,
heading into the Central Plains. Scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible for our western NE area late this
afternoon, but severe weather isn`t expected. The main story will be
the strong, gusty winds that will occur in the wind prone and gap
areas of southeast WY. A few areas on the lee side of the higher
terrain will also see strong wind gusts. The signal for a prolonged
high wind event is weak, but went ahead and upgraded the high wind
headlines nonetheless. The gusty winds will stick around for western
Nebraska late tonight through the early Friday morning hours.

We will have another round of shortwave disturbances approach the
area by late Friday, and again on Saturday. The stronger wave will
impact us on Saturday, but scattered rain showers and general
thunderstorms will be the primary weather hazards. We aren`t
expecting severe weather to accompany the thunderstorms that develop
on Saturday. Daytime highs on Friday and Saturday will show a
gradual warmup trend. Highs in the 60s and 70s are likely, with the
warmest temperatures across the high plains of western Nebraska both
days. Expect the warmer temperature trend to continue through the
remainder of the holiday weekend into early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

First of 2 shortwaves moves through Saturday evening...bringing
showers and thunderstorms into the Nebraska Panhandle as it
moves through. Could see showers and storms persisting into the
late evening past midnight before weather begins to settle down
Sunday morning.

A stronger shortwave looks to be located in southern Idaho
early Sunday morning that tracks across the CWA Sunday
afternoon. Timing of this system moving through during the
afternoon could lead to some strong to severe
thunderstorms...though timing could change.

This last shortwave moves through Sunday night into Monday...so
Memorial Day looks pretty nice across southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Warm/dry weather looks to continue into the
middle of next week as an upper level ridge remains in place
across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

A trough aloft and its associated cold front will move across
the terminals during the daytime on Thursday.

Scattered to broken clouds from 10000 to 15000 feet will occur.
Winds will gust to 22 knots at Chadron and Alliance until 15Z,
then winds will gust to 42 knots at all terminals after 15Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this
     evening for WYZ101-104>107-110-116-117.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN