129
FNUS28 KWNS 302155
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend
through early next week. Enhanced westerly flow will likely develop
over northern portions of the West this weekend through early next
week as an upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia while
a weak atmospheric river brings precipitation to the Pacific
Northwest Day 4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday. Precipitation is also
likely along and west of the Divide in the northern Rockies. To the
south of the precipitation, stronger winds are likely to spread
across portions of the Intermountain West this weekend and early
next week. Model guidance is coalescing around an upper-level ridge
building over the West mid to late next week resulting in
temperatures of 5-20 degrees above normal, including temperatures of
90-110F from the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and
Central Valley.

...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Southwest into Big Bend...
West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of
5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West
this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the
Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much
of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are
tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile.
BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in
much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing
the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at
this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend
Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday.

Behind the dry and breezy conditions, upper-level ridging is
expected to develop aloft mid to late next week with increasing
temperatures. Additionally, moisture could slide westward and result
in chances of isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of New Mexico
late next week. However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty
to include probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time.

...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: central/south Florida...
A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass is expected across much of
the Florida Peninsula this weekend, with locally critical conditions
possible in portions of central and south Florida. Forecast guidance
indicates that locally critical conditions are most likely on
Day3/Saturday during the outlook period. Near record KBDI and ERC-Y
values remain across portions of central and south Florida and
recent large fire activity all indicate the potential for ignition
and spread, including after isolated thunderstorms in preceding
days.

..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$