122
ACUS48 KWNS 280854
SWOD48
SPC AC 280853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent
mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great
Lakes region late this week into early next weekend.  It appears
that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains
uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various
model output.  Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger
westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is
generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast
through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle
of next week.

It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing
which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of
the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern
Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across
northwestern Ontario Tuesday.  It might not be out of the question
that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture
return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could
contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday
afternoon.  This could continue along a cold front overtaking the
dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and
along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into
Monday/Monday night.

..Kerr.. 05/28/2024