Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
021 ACUS48 KWNS 240902 SWOD48 SPC AC 240900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024