Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
569 ACUS48 KWNS 010829 SWOD48 SPC AC 010828 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution of the northern-stream shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday. Much of guidance suite now suggests this wave will mature into a cyclone over Manitoba on D5/Wednesday before then tracking southeastward over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Surface low will be stacked beneath the mid/upper level cyclone by D5/Wednesday, while an associated cold front moves eastward/southeastward through the Upper Midwest and Mid MS Valley on D4/Tuesday. This initial front will likely weaken on D5/Wednesday, before another more substantial frontal push occurs on D6/Thursday, taking the front through much of the central Plains and OH Valley. Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front, beginning across the Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday and continuing across the central Plains on D5/Wednesday. Thunderstorms will remain possible across the central Plains on D6/Thursday, with storms possible across the middle/upper OH Valley as well. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage precludes the need for an area across the Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday, while uncertainties regarding frontal timing limit predictability on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday. The front is not expected to effect much of the southern Plains with low-level moisture remaining over the region on D7/Friday and D8/Saturday. This suggests some thunderstorms are possible but the lack of any large, more synoptic scale features limits predictability. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024