Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
913 ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SWOD48 SPC AC 250843 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter portion of next week. Ensemble output suggests that this regime will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies into northern Great Plains. In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by early next weekend. However, an initial perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse rates. Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on Wednesday. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024