061
FXUS63 KDDC 012229
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
529 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A severe thunderstorm complex is expected to roll across
  roughly the southwest 2/3rds of our area this afternoon and
  evening, posing mainly a damaging wind gust threat.

- Another chance of severe storms exists on Sunday, however
  coverage is expected to be much lower.

- Precipitation chances persist into early next work week, but
  begin to diminish by Wednesday as upper level ridging builds
  out west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal
a rather low-amplitude synoptic pattern is in place, with a
weak shortwave trough over the far western CONUS and a weak
shortwave ridge over the southern plains, resulting in mostly
zonal flow across the central Rockies into the central plains.
As these features continue to shift east this afternoon and
evening, weak vorticity lobes cresting the shortwave ridge will
aid in thunderstorm initiation from far southeast CO to the
Syracuse/Johnson City area by 21Z. Latest guidance/HREF
indicate this activity will expand in coverage and intensity,
and organize into a severe linear convective system within an
environment characterized by at least 1500-2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE
and 30-40 kts of bulk shear as it rolls across roughly the
southwestern 2/3rds of our CWA. Given dewpoint temperatures in
the 50s and temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s, DCAPE will
increase into the 1200-1600 J/Kg range, suggesting the primary
severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. However, large hail
will also be possible, especially during the early stages of
convection. Thunderstorm activity may linger well into the
overnight hours as a few CAMs depict back-building, but should
clear southwest KS by sunrise Sunday morning.

Daytime Sunday, short range guidance suggest the weak upper
level trough out west will dampen as it emerges onto the central
plains. Ahead of this weak wave, a lee cyclone in far southeast
CO will deepen to around 996-mb, supporting southerly winds to
increase across southwest KS into the 20-30 mph range with gusts
of 35-40 mph. Concurrently, 850-mb temperatures will rise by 3-5
degrees C, translating to afternoon high reaching the upper 80s
to mid 90s. Another round of thunderstorms is possible Sunday
afternoon and evening, especially west of US-283. Although, weak
shear and even larger dewpoint depressions will limit overall
coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles
indicate nearly zonal flow will be in place atop the central
plains, with the main belt of the subtropical jet spread out
across the northern CONUS. Chances for precipitation will exist
for much of the area Monday and Tuesday as weak vorticity lobes
emanating from the Desert Southwest combine with a strong upper
level trough moving east across the northern plains, supporting
GEFS/ECMWF EPS probability of QPF > 0.01" generally in the
50-80% range. But by Wednesday, ensembles suggest the first
sign of the summertime upper level ridge over the Desert
Southwest/Intermountain West will appear and continue to build
through the end of the long term period. This pattern will
effectively eliminate all precipitation chances owing to strong
DNVA overspreading the central and southern plains. Otherwise,
afternoon temperatures will mainly be above normal, with highs
reaching the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Convection,and possibly severe, should be an immediate threat at
the LBL terminals for the 00z TAF set. At 22 UTC several
supercells are already mature over extreme southeast Colorado.
These storms are forecast by several of the HREF members,
included the HRRR to develop into one or more multi-cell
clusters with widespread severe thunderstorm wind risk. It is
likely each terminal will see some period of convection for
around and hour or two over the next 3 to 5 hours. The southwest
terminals are almost certain to see heavy rain low vsby (around
1 mile in +TSRA) and lowered ceilings this evening. The
development of low level status is not particularly high

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Russell