Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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691 FXUS63 KDDC 212315 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 615 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms across west central Kansas. - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected across much of southwest Kansas this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest ahead of a broader scale trough transitioning east through the Central Rockies. Near the surface, a cold front is pushing southeast into northern Oklahoma. There is a 20-30% chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across west central Kansas early in the period as the SREF shows an upper level shortwave trough pushing east through the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas this evening. Although instability will be limited as northerlies continue to funnel in drier air into the region, CAMs do suggest shower/thunderstorm development early this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima eject east out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting with H7 frontogenetic banding developing in wake of the cold front pushing southward into the Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma. The latest HREF indicates a very minimal 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch across west central Kansas and a small portion of southwest Kansas near the Colorado border by early Wednesday morning. Temperatures are forecast to be a little below seasonal tonight as surface high pressure moving in from the west helps reinforce a cooler air mass across the region. The HREF paints a 60-70% probability of lows dropping below 50F in west central Kansas to only a 30-40% probability of temperatures falling below 55F in south central Kansas. Near normal temperatures are expected Wednesday with a cooler air mass slow to erode across western Kansas due to a slowly departing surface high to the east, returning south-southeasterlies mid/late afternoon. The HREF indicates an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding 70F in west central Kansas to an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding 75F in south central Kansas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The next reasonable chance (20-30%) for thunderstorms will be late Thursday/early Friday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level trough swinging eastward through the Northern Rockies Thursday, and farther into the Northern Plains Thursday night, setting up an increasingly difluent west-southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. In response to the approaching system, surface low pressure is projected to develop/deepen in eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon with an attendant sharpening dryline extending south into the Texas Panhandle, then advancing eastward Thursday evening. Ample moisture return ahead of the advancing dryline, and subsequent cold front from the northwest, will help push surface dewpoints up into the 60s(F), increasing instability. Although timing/track remain uncertain, thunderstorm development is expected late afternoon/evening as H5 vort maxima eject out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting with the aforementioned dryline/front. The best chance for storms will be across central/south central Kansas where the NBM paints a 20-30% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early Friday morning. Much drier air filling in behind the advancing dryline will keep much of southwest Kansas dry. Spotty precip chances (20%) may linger into Saturday/Sunday as a relatively weak upper level perturbation quickly moves through the Western High Plains within a fairly zonal flow aloft. Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast Thursday as prevailing southerlies enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures well up into the mid/upper 20s(C) by late afternoon. The NBM shows an 80% probability of of highs exceeding 80F in central and south central Kansas with an 80% probability of highs climbing above 85F in extreme southwest Kansas. Temperatures will not be quite as warm Friday in wake of the cold frontal passage, but temperatures should rebound a little Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Scattered thunderstorms ahead of an approaching upper level trough will weaken as they move across west central Kansas (around the Garden City area) between 00Z and 03Z Wednesday. Cloud bases with these storms will range from 6000 to 12000ft AGL. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will then cross southwest Kansas between 05Z and 10Z Wednesday, with cloud bases as low as 3000 to 6000ft AGL. Following the passage of the upper level trough early Wednesday morning, skies will clear from northwest to southeast. Northerly winds at 10 to 15 knots overnight will decrease to less than 10 knots during the day on Wednesday as an area of high pressure at the surface builds into western Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Burgert