Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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877 FXUS63 KDDC 040936 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 436 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible southeast of Dodge City Tuesday afternoon and evening. - The hottest day so far this young summer season is expected Wednesday. - After a dry Wednesday and Thursday, shower and thunderstorm probabilities increase again over the coming weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Midnight infrared satellite imagery reveals a quiet night across SW KS with a mainly clear sky. Surface observations depict uniform light SEly winds, continuing to maintain dewpoints well into the 60s. With moisture advection in place, and plenty of standing water remaining from the last two nights of MCSs, the boundary layer will reach saturation through sunrise Tuesday, with widespread stratus and areas of fog. Will need to monitor for the need for a dense fog advisory for the Tuesday morning commute, with reduced visibility most likely over the central and southeast zones. A mild and muggy sunrise is expected, with temperatures in the 60s and relative humidity near 100%. We are now experiencing the strongest sunshine of the year, as such any fog or stratus will dissolve rapidly Tuesday morning, no later than 10 am. Winds will trend N/NEly Tuesday, and modestly elevated, with gusts near 30 mph, strongest along the preferred US 83 corridor during the midday hours. Behind this wind shift/surface trough axis/cold front, models show no cold air advection, typical of June. Afternoon temperatures will be commonly in the upper 80s. 00z NAM develops strong instability again along/ahead of this trough, focusing on the southeast zones at peak heating, with CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and dewpoints in mid/upper 60s. Feel most convection will remain in WFO Wichita/Norman`s CWA, but enough models including 00z ECMWF suggest some development near the DDC/ICT CWA border to justify minimal pops for the eastern zones. Any updraft with access to the high instability will be capable of large hail, thus SPC 5% marginal wind/hail probability across/near Barber county. All chances for rainfall or thunderstorms will end Wednesday, with strong height rises/subsidence overspreading SW KS. Models remain consistent with the core of the mid level anticyclone near 592 dm over New Mexico 7 pm Wednesday. Models show 6-7C of warming at 850 mb, and when coupled with gentle SWly downslope, afternoon temperatures will soar to the mid 90s. Evaporation of standing water is expected to shave temperatures down 1-2 degrees. 00z GEFS probability of 2m T > 90 is 100% all zones, but the probability of 2m T > 100 degrees is 0%. Still, the hottest day so far this young summer season is expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The strong 593 dm midlevel high remains firmly in control Thursday, centered over New Mexico, with a further increase in heights over SW KS. Despite this, a weak cool front will supply easterly upslope wind components, keeping afternoon temperatures restricted to the upper 80s and lower 90s. NBM chance category pops favoring the southwest zones Thursday night appear too wet and overdone, given proximity of the upper high and strong subsidence. A large portion of the midlevel high retreats southward into Texas Friday, opening up more established NWly midlevel flow and an uptick in shower/thunderstorm chances. SEly flow will be well established, maintaining an influx of dewpoints well into the 60s and moderate to high instability. Coupled with the directional shear, organized storms and some severe weather appear probable Friday afternoon/evening. NBM chance pops were accepted. A rather strong cold front for June standards is expected at some point over the weekend, in response to an amplifying PNA synoptic pattern over North America, with ridging building over the Great Basin, and persistent troughing over the Great Lakes. 00z MEX/GFS guidance shows this, with highs reduced to the 70s Sunday. NBM`s chance category pops are certainly warranted Saturday with the cold front passage, but feel the NBM is too wet Sunday as the cold front pushes well into Texas, delivering a cooler/drier/more stable airmass. Deterministic guidance is about 10 degrees cooler than NBM next Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Surface observations at 0930z Tue showed light south to southeast winds in a very moist boundary layer. Moisture advection and upslope flow has resulted in widespread IFR stratus at the airports. Largely IFR stratus ceilings are expected to prevail through 15z Tue, although flight categories will bounce down to LIFR or up to MVFR at times. Some reductions in visibility in BR/FG are expected through 15z Tue, but widespread dense fog is not expected. All fog and stratus will dissolve no later than 18z Tue, followed by VFR/SKC Tuesday afternoon and evening. A cold front is expected to provide a N/NEly wind shift to the airports around 15z Tue, followed by N/NE wind gusts of 22-27 kts, with the strongest winds at GCK/LBL. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner