425
FXUS63 KDDC 032042
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
342 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog, possibly dense, early Tuesday morning as higher
  dewpoints push back north into southwest Kansas on southeast
  winds.

- Thunderstorm chances minimal through Thursday as the main
  polar front remains south of southwestern Kansas.

- A wetter/stormier pattern is likely beginning Friday evening
  going into the upcoming weekend with severe weather and heavy
  rainfall potential increasing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The large mesoscale convective system (MCS) earlier this morning
left in its wake a cooler, more stable airmass across much of
Kansas. The focus for surface-based severe local storms will be to
the south of our southwest Kansas area of responsibility...down into
the eastern Texas Panhandle and west central/southwestern Oklahoma
where low level convergence will be enhanced from the MCS`s remnant
outflow boundary.

For our area tonight early Tuesday morning, we will be looking at
return southeasterly flow in the low levels, including the surface,
which will draw northward higher dewpoints...as high as the upper
60s to around 70 across the south central Kansas counties (generally
east and southeast of Dodge City). Elsewhere, mid 60s dewpoints will
be common. The slight upslope component to the surface winds and
temperatures falling into the upper 60s, we will likely see the
development of low stratus and/or fog. The latest official forecast
will follow closely the 12Z HREF means/probabilities for fog as the
HREF has fairly widespread 30-40% probabilities of 1/4 mile or less
visibility centered across the central portions of our forecast
area. Each run of the HRRR model that goes out to 12Z Tuesday shows
a fairly consistent signal of 1/4 mile visibility as well. The next
shift will need to continue to monitor obs, satellite, and hourly
HRRR trends for possible dense fog headline, but we will hold off on
any such issuance this ESTF cycle. Something else we will need to
monitor is late nocturnal convection developing in an increasingly
convergent low level flow field ahead of a frontal boundary across
northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. There is slight
signal in thunderstorm activity developing across northwest Kansas
and clipping the I-70 corridor around daybreak or after, but the
prospects of a large MCS like the past couple mornings are very
small.

The rest of the Short Term forecast is fairly straight-forward with
rather benign sensible weather as a cold front pushes southeast
during the day Tuesday, pushing any thunderstorm risk southeast of
our forecast area, with the exception, perhaps, of Barber
County/vicinity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The early portion of the Long Term period...Wednesday and
Thursday...will be fairly quiet with convective activity focused
across the Southern Plains as a formidable upper tropospheric jet
streak crosses the Midwest Region, pushing the polar front well to
the south of southwest Kansas. The Midwest/Great Lakes system will
push east quickly, and the polar front will stall out somewhere near
the Red River region late Thursday/Thursday Night. By early Friday,
very moist Gulf of Mexico air mass to the south of the old front
will begin to pull back northward toward western Kansas as westerly
winds in the mid levels across the Rockies induce lower level
leeside troughing. All of the global models show a nicely
established leeside trough with long north-south corridor of
south/southeast winds east of a sharpening dryline/leeside trough.
This will set the stage for a potential multiple day/night severe
weather setup across the western Great Plains, including southwest
Kansas, along with multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCS) in
the favorable broad west or west-northwest flow aloft. The flat
ridge centered across Arizona and New Mexico with several shortwave
troughs moving around the northern periphery of this ridge, along
with abundant low level moisture on south/southeast winds is the
classic pattern for multiple MCSs across the central High Plains.
This pattern is favored for a 3 or 4 day/night period beginning
Friday Night. Obviously, each day/night`s thunderstorm forecast will
depend on the magnitude and track of previous day/night`s MCS
activity, but the synoptic setup certainly favors increased
thunderstorm chances beginning Friday evening.

This pattern may be break around Tuesday of next week (11 June) when
ensemble means suggest increased amplification of the upper level
pattern (ridge in the west, trough in the east), which would push
the effective synoptic polar front to the south of southwest Kansas
with much drier/stable air mass in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Aviation weather through this evening will be good with light
winds and widespread VFR flight category. Overnight, however,
low level moisture will increase as winds become southeasterly,
and this will lead to increased probability of IFR/LIFR flight
category in low stratus and/or fog in the 09-14Z time frame in
particular. The 12Z HREF model showing 30-40% probs of LIFR
flight category during this time frame along with conceptual
model of very moist, increasing southeasterly upslope winds is
enough for introduce IFR/LIFR late in this TAF period (early
Tuesday morning).

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid