Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
753 FXXX12 KWNP 311231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 31 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1.0 flare at 31/1120 UTC from Region 3967 (S18E42, Eki/beta-gamma-delta). C-class flares occurred from Regions 3691 (N25W11, Dkc/beta-delta), 3697, and 3698 (N22E31, Cri/beta). Region 3697 showed decay in its trailing spots and separation in its leaders. Region 3691 showed an overall decay trend and magnetic simplification. Slight growth was observed in Region 3698. Other activity included an approximate 26 degree filament centered near S27E17 that appeared to be destabilizing around 31/0800 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 02 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 02 Jun. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 02 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period. Total field ranged from 1-9 nT. Prolonged periods of southward Bz reaching -7 to -9 nT were observed between 30/1044-2313 UTC and again from 31/0023-0514 UTC. Solar wind speed ranged from 321-381 km/s. Phi angle was variable. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is likely to continue to be mildly disturbed on 31 May. Flanking influences from the 29 May CME is likely to cause further enhancements late on 31 May and continuing through 01 Jun. A return to nominal solar conditions is expected on 02 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming between 31/0300-0600 UTC due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. .Forecast... G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely to commence by late 31 May and continue into 01 Jun due to flanking effects from the 29 May CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 02 June.