Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
904 FXXX12 KWNP 280031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to an X2.8 flare that occurred at 27/0708 UTC. This event was accompanied by Type II and IV radio sweeps, with the former registering an estimated speed of 1,135 km/s, and a tenflare of 300 sfu. The source of the flare was a region just beyond the southeast limb, presumed to be old AR3664. Region 3691 (N25E34, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) retained its magnetic complexity and was responsible for a C4.7 flare at 27/1751 UTC and a C8.9 flare at 27/1916 UTC. Regions 3692 (S08W09, Cao/beta) and 3693 (N06E22, Dao/beta) exhibited slight decay as they grew in overall size. The remaining active regions were stable and quiet. A fast, halo CME, first seen in SOHO C2 imagery at approximately 27/0712 UTC, was associated with the aforementioned X-class flare. A strong Earth-directed component is not expected with this CME. However, shock influences reaching Earth can not be ruled out. Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S20W35 that began around 27/0127 UTC. Modeling suggests that this particular CME should miss ahead of Earths orbit. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely continue at high levels with occasional M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flares (R3/Strong Radio Blackouts) through 30 May. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 30 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was mostly between 4-8 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -5 nT. Solar wind speeds briefly increased to ~415 km/s before returning to ~370 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible over 28 May due to CH HSS influence. An additional enhancement due to indirect shock arrival from the aforementioned X2.8 flare event may arrive by late 29 May. The solar wind environment is expected to return to ambient-like levels over the course of 30 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 28 May with any lingering CH HSS effects. Isolated active levels, with a chance for a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming period, are expected with any shock arrival from the 27 May CME event from just beyond the southeastern limb. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 May as any lingering shock effects wane.