Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
847 FXXX12 KWNP 020031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 3697 (S18E21, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of X1 flares and an M7 flare this period. Most notable was the M7.3 that peaked at 01/1939 UTC with accompanying Type II and IV radio emissions. The associated asymmetric halo CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 01/1900 UTC, is expected to be Earth-directed, though further analysis is needed to determine the timing and intensity of impact. Growth was observed in the intermediate spot area of Region 3697 and a delta configuration persisted in the leader spot area. The region also produced numerous C-class flares through the period. 3691 (N25W32, Dkc/beta-gamma) showed an overall decay trend and magnetic simplification throughout the period and produced C-class activity. Region 3698 indicated some overall growth, particularly in the leader spots. New Region 3699 (N04W14, Cao/beta) was numbered and exhibited minor growth since emerging. Regions 3700 (S04W37, Dai/beta) and 3701 (S04E30, Cai/beta) were numbered this period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 04 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 04 Jun. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 04 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were nominal. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT. Bz was variable at benign levels. Solar wind speed averaged near 340 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominantly negative sector. .Forecast... At the time of this writing, nominal solar wind conditions are expected to continue through 04 Jun. The 01 Jun halo CME mentioned above is expected to arrive during the period, however, further analysis is required to determine the timing and intensity of impact. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 02 Jun. Pending modelling results for the halo CME from 01 Jun, the forecast for 03-04 Jun is likely to be in the G1-G3 range.