Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
703 FXXX12 KWNP 210031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 3683 (S24W72, Dai/beta) produced a C6.7 flare at 20/0554 UTC. Associated with this flare was a CME and corresponding filament eruption. Analysis of this event was difficult as it was masked in coronagraph imagery by the halo event mentioned below. However, GOES SUVI/304 and GONG H-Alpha imagery suggest most of the ejecta was reabsorbed. Region 3685 (S13E15, Ehc/beta-gamma) continued to exhibit slight growth in its intermediate spots, but was only responsible for a few low-level C-class flares. Regions 3679 (S08W31, Esi/beta-gamma) and 3684 (S07W04, Cao/beta) also had development in their trailer and intermediate spots, but were quiet throughout the period. Region 3686 (S06E25/beta) developed some trailer spots, and produced a couple of low-level C-class flares as well. The remaining spot groups were quiet and stable or in decay. After further modeling and analysis, the halo CME observed in coronagraph imagery earlier in the period, was determined to be a far-sided event, likely from old Region 3664. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) probable and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) on 21-23 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons reaching S1 (Minor) levels on 21-23 May due to the flare potential of Region 3685. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels, with a chanced for high levels, through 23 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... After a minor disruption in the solar wind environment (likely associated with a passing transient) early in the period, solar wind parameters returned to near background levels. Solar wind speeds averaged near 375 km/s, total field strength decreased from 9 nT to around 6 nT by periods end, while the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -6 nT. Phi was mostly positive, with occasional oscillations into a negative orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind enhancements from the CME that left the Sun on 17 May may linger through 21 May. Solar wind is expected to return to background levels on 22-23 May, with the possible exception of a grazing influence from transients. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. At the time of this writing, the anticipated minor storm from the CME on the 17th had not materialized. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with isolated active periods likely, on 21 May as CME effects gradually diminish. A return to mostly quiet levels is then expected on 22-23 May unless Earth is grazed by any transient features that might trigger an active period.