Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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937 FXUS63 KDLH 021004 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 504 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog in northwest Wisconsin will clear this morning. - System bringing heavy rain for portions of the Northland and severe weather in north central Minnesota will arrive this evening and last through most of Monday. - Quickly followed by another system that will bring more heavy rain and severe weather Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Lingering fog this morning in northwest Wisconsin with visibilities as low as a quarter mile in some areas. As the sun rises and low level mixing starts up, fog should dissipate by mid morning. Before the excitement later today, lingering dry air aloft and efficient mixing today will lead to dry conditions, especially in the Arrowhead. Relative humidity as low as 20% is possible in the Arrowhead and 30% elsewhere. Convergence aloft from flow switching to the south and warm and moist Gulf air being advected up to the Upper Midwest will slowly saturate the lower and mid levels throughout the day. A thin area of clouds and light rain showers are present in central Minnesota this morning, but is battling dry air, so only some sprinkles will hit the ground, if anything. Some showers may reach the ground by early afternoon in northern Itasca/Koochiching counties. The main show begins later in the evening as a cold front with a low pressure system in the Dakotas moving northeast to Canada. Heightened instability (500-1500 J/kg) across western and north central Minnesota along with marginal 0-6km shear (~30kts) and lapse rates over 7 C/km for the afternoon will lead to isolated to scattered severe storms throughout northeastern and north central Minnesota. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main threat, but large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible with these storms - especially earlier in the evening. Once night falls, lower levels become stable, and the severe threat will decrease a few hours after midnight. Then the line of storms will become elevated and continue to make its way through the area. Heavy rainfall will also accompany this line. Predicted PW and rainfall totals continue to decrease, but PWs up to an inch and a half and up to an inch of rain is still possible (60%) where the heaviest rain falls. Main areas that will see highest values are the Brainerd Lakes area, decreasing as you head east. With saturated soils from recent rainfall, isolated areas of ponding to minor flooding may occur. A sharp upper level trough dipping down into the Central Plains will bring another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall. This system has a similar setup to this one, but the system`s arrival in the morning will lead to the severe threat being further east. Global models show MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear in excess of 30 kts for most of the Northland, but specifically across the southern half of our area. Heavy rainfall is also expected, but models currently diverge on the timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall. However, PWs once again in excess of 1.5 inches could lead to widespread half inch to an inch across the Northland. By Wednesday, a blocking pattern seems to set up over the western CONUS which will lead to temperatures cooler than normal, gusty winds, and more chances for showers and storms throughout the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR conditions for tonight into Sunday. Fog chances have moved east, and are no longer expected to get flight restrictions from fog. Scattered storms ahead of a cold front will affect our western terminals, with some strong to severe storms possible. As the cold front moves east, a large line of storms will move with it. This line may produce strong to damaging winds and small hail. Ceilings will lower to MVFR with the line and there may be some visibility restriction with heavy rain. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A couple rounds of showers and storms over western Lake Superior today and Tuesday will have increased northeast winds in otherwise lighter southwest winds. No hazardous conditions are currently expected, but will need to be monitored whether these increase for the Tuesday system. Some strong to severe storms are possible over western Lake Superior on Tuesday as well. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ009. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140-141- 147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML