839
FXUS63 KDLH 250529
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1229 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty conditions in the Arrowhead with scattered showers and
  rain through the rest of the day. Isolated thunderstorms are
  possible in northwest Wisconsin yet this afternoon.

- Periods of showers and storms last into the start of next
  week.

- Drier conditions arrive mid-next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Short Term:

The focus of our weather today can be tied to an occluded low
spinning around aimlessly near the intersection of the Dakotas
and Minnesota. Earlier today an occluded front moved through the
region bringing the rain the region saw this morning. Evidence
of it can still be seen across the borderlands of far, far northern
Minnesota where a banded line of heavier radar reflectivities is
mainly moving into northwest Ontario. Behind this, there is a
small lull in precipitation until you get to a line stretching
from the Brainerd Lakes Region into the head of the Lake and
into northwest Wisconsin where some light precipitation has
started up again. This should move off to the northeast through
the rest of the day. Later this afternoon, we could see some
clearing appear south of the line I mentioned earlier allowing
for up to 1000 joules of MUCAPE to develop. With up to 40kts of
Bulk Shear tied to an upper jet impinging into the Northern
Great Lakes, we could see small hail around the size of a dime,
gusty winds to 40 mph, and quick downpours in some of the
stronger cores. These storms should die off as we head towards
sunset with a cooling boundary layer reducing the instability.
Besides the rain, another large concern we will have through
this evening will be the gusty conditions tied to a tight
pressure gradient from the 992mb low pressure just off to our
west. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 8 PM tonight for the
Arrowhead of northeast Minnesota to account for strong
southeasterly winds coming off of the lake. As it stands right
now winds will be sustained in the 15-25 mph range with gusts in
the 30-40 mph range through early this evening.

Extended Range:

Drier conditions will be with us to start Saturday with the
storm system from Friday moving into Canada and leaving the
Northland behind. However, as we head into Saturday afternoon
and especially evening, chances for showers increase along the
southern tier of counties. Isentropic advection from the south
will ignite scattered showers and storms through the evening and
into early Sunday morning. Another quick moving storm system
south of the region on Sunday will create the next shot for
rain Sunday afternoon as it moves northeastward through the
Great Lakes. Tuesday will see another trough move through the
area bringing with it unsettled conditions with a chance for
rain. Drier weather finally sets up Wednesday onwards with a
ridge building across the Plains bringing us drier conditions to
close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A low pressure system is along the Manitoba and Ontario border this
morning with areas of light rain tapering off across the region.
MVFR ceilings still linger across northern MN and there is potential
for some IFR ceilings at INL. After sunrise some of the high res
guidance is suggesting some light rain possible near BRD. This area
of showers is projected to weaken as it moves northeast. As we head
into the afternoon hours there is potential for a line of showers
and storms to develop from the Brainerd Lakes region towards the
Twin Ports. Thunderstorm chances quickly drop off after sunset.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Ongoing gale-force east-northeast winds gusting to 40 knots
persist through early this evening. The ongoing Gale Warnings
will very likely need to be replaced with Small Craft Advisories
after they expire at 7 PM. Winds shift westerly late tonight and
persist Saturday, gusting to 25 knots at times. Lingering
elevated swell across all of the western waters into Saturday
keeps conditions hazardous for small craft into Saturday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ121-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>145-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146-
     147.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy/KP
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...NLy