950
FXUS63 KDLH 250903
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
403 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. No severe
  weather is anticipated at this time.

- Active weather continues through early next week with off and
  on chances for rain and thunderstorms. No signals for severe
  weather.

- A brief reprieve from the active weather arrives midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Current conditions/Morning:

A vertically stacked low has moved into southeast Manitoba this
morning with a few isolated light showers tapering off across
northern MN. Southwest winds begin to nudge their way in across the
Brainerd Lakes later this morning promoting an increase in warm air
advection. CAMs have a breif signal for some sprinkles moving west
to east before dissipating across Lake Superior before noon.

This afternoon/Evening:

Southwest flow continues across the region today and we will see a
baroclinic zone set up from the Brainerd Lakes region northeast
through most of our CWA. Within this corridor showers and a few
thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon (20-40%). SPC has our
area outlined in a general thunder threat with no severe weather
anticipated. A few of the CAMs are a bit more rigorous with their
depiction of the afternoon cells but the main question is how much
instability will be in play for the atmosphere to work with. Most
guidance is on the low end showcasing around a couple hundreds of
J/kg. A few outliers such as the RAP still show over 500 J/kg, but
it seems to be overestimating dewpoints with forecasted afternoon
values over 55F. This is well over the 99th percentile of other
guidance so would likely quantify the RAP as the work case scenario
model for the day. Regardless, plenty of bulk shear for storms to
work with. Small hail and some gusty winds at the surface look to be
the main hazards this afternoon and early evening. Storm chances
quickly drop off after sunset leaving rain showers and the
occasional rumble of thunder through the overnight hours. Lack of a
strong moisture source region will keep rain totals on the low side
with most areas remaining less than 0.25 inches of rain.

Sunday:

A low pressure system is projected to moves across the Midwest
through southern WI on it`s way towards Lake Michigan. The northern
periphery of this system will glance NW WI increasing rain chances
through the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, easterly
winds off of Lake Superior combined with residual moisture in the
area could lead to some rain developing along the North Shore. There
still remains some uncertainty with the Low track which will impact
rainfall amounts. For now, the better chances for moderate rain fall
are over our SE counties in WI. No severe weather is expected at
this time.

Memorial Day and into the midweek:

The active pattern looks to continue for Memorial Day as an upper
level trough swings out of the Northern Plains and into the
Northland. Current 00Z guidance has rain entering from the west in
the morning and spreading east through the day. A few thunderstorms
will be possible but lack of shear will prevent strong storms from
developing. High temps will be in the 60s. We continue to carry
precip chances for Tuesday before high pressure settles in for
Wednesday allowing for a brief reprieve.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A low pressure system is along the Manitoba and Ontario border this
morning with areas of light rain tapering off across the region.
MVFR ceilings still linger across northern MN and there is potential
for some IFR ceilings at INL. After sunrise some of the high res
guidance is suggesting some light rain possible near BRD. This area
of showers is projected to weaken as it moves northeast. As we head
into the afternoon hours there is potential for a line of showers
and storms to develop from the Brainerd Lakes region towards the
Twin Ports. Thunderstorm chances quickly drop off after sunset.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Southwest winds continue to stream across Lake Superior today
creating hazardous conditions for small vessels. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon for most of the
nearshore waters. This afternoon scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will impact Lake Superior.

After winds taper off this afternoon we will see an extended period
of lighter winds and smaller wave heights. The weather however will
still remain active with off and on rain chances and thunderstorms
through early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt