Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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465 FXUS63 KDLH 221906 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 206 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Steep low level lapse rates is allowing stronger winds aloft to mix down this afternoon. As a result, we`ve had reports of stronger gusts to 45 mph. Duluth had one rogue gust to 56 mph. We issued a Wind Advisory through early evening for the North Shore to the Twin Ports and along the South Shore. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong west/northwest winds through early evening around Lake Superior. - Rain showers continue into today. Some in our southern area could see additional storms this afternoon. - Short dry period before rain chances return Thursday afternoon and linger into the weekend and next week. - Finally may see dry conditions by mid week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Today: The low bringing us light to moderate rainfall is making its way northeast through the Northland. Possible clearing across the southern portions across the CWA will lead to increased instability and low level lapse rates that will lead to more convection over those who see clearing. Some of the more robust soundings show the possibility for some small hail and strong winds from dry microbursts. With weak wind shear, however, these storms will be disorganized and short-lived. All precipitation is expected to end tonight. Thursday/Weekend System: Our dry period will be short lived, as both global models hint at chances, albeit slight, for more light rain starting as early as Thursday afternoon due to WAA from the south ahead of this weekend`s system. There is still discrepancy in the models on when these rain showers and thunderstorms will reach the western portions of our area, but chances are increasing that the Northland will see rain starting Thursday evening. In addition, increase in instability and low level lapse rates, as well as 0-6km shear around 30 kts, some storms could be strong to severe in the Brainerd Lakes region. Main threats will be hail up to an inch and damaging winds from dry microbursts. The main system will reach us Friday morning, and looks like it could be another soaker. PWATs are not nearly as high for this system but will still have PWATs an inch or more across most of our area. There is a likely chance (70%) that most of the Northland will see another half inch, especially areas in north central Minnesota. However, if the track of this system deviates, areas where the highest rainfall is expected will also change. The system should exit into Canada throughout the day Saturday. Sunday-Next Week: A deeper trough in the Mountain West will develop a surface low Sunday that will likely take a more southern track than the previous systems. However, ensembles are all over the board with the placement of this low, and this will determine whether we get another round of rain showers into early next week in the northern quadrant of the low. Mid next week, the Upper Midwest breathes a sigh if relief as we may have a full day`s dry weather as a ridge moves over the Northern Plains. This should be short-lived, however as an active pattern resumes for the late week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Low pressure will continue to pull away from the region but gusty west to northwest winds will continue this afternoon with good mixing and tight pressure gradient. A mix of low VFR and MVFR ceilings will occur into early evening then they should diminish becoming VFR for most. Scattered showers, most numerous in northern Minnesota. A few thunderstorms may also develop across this afternoon into early evening. Showers and any lingering thunderstorms will end overnight. The wind will also diminish this evening. VFR conditions are expected Thursday morning through 18Z. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Winds have decreased over western Lake Superior as the low pressure system moves over and winds turn to the southwest. However, winds will increase once again on the back side of the low and gales will return for all near shore waters. Winds will start to decrease tonight, but will remain hazardous to small craft into Thursday. As numerous systems move over the Upper Midwest the remainder of the week and into next week, there will be more chances for conditions hazardous to small craft. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ020-021-037. WI...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-140>148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...Melde DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Melde MARINE...KML