Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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878 FXUS63 KDLH 211145 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 645 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog in the Twin Ports and patchy fog across the Northland this morning should dissipate during the mid morning. - Heavy rainfall rates combined with saturated soils may produce minor flooding in the Northland. - Severe weather is possible this afternoon, mainly in northwest Wisconsin. However, an isolated severe storm in far eastern portions of Minnesota is not out of the question. - Rain chances continue in the late week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Easterly flow off Lake Superior and a low level inversion is leading to dense fog in the Twin Ports. In addition, high humidity from rain yesterday and radiational cooling overnight has lead to patchy fog inland as well. Inland fog should dissipate throughout the morning as temperatures increase. The marine fog could take a couple hours longer as easterly flow off the lake continues. This system will be somewhat of a double whammy as both severe weather and flooding are possible. PWATs at or above the climatological maximum (about 1.2 inches) will bring heavy rainfall region wide. Highest rainfall amounts are expected in the wrap-around region of the low, and totals up to 3 inches are possible by Wednesday evening. Current totals suggest that today`s record for precipitation could be tied or broken at Duluth and International Falls. This afternoon and evening, a warm front will move through the eastern half of the CWA. An increase in instability 1000-2000 J/kg combined with 0-6km wind shear of around 40 kts will lead to strong to severe thunderstorms. Lapse rates are pretty modest, but high enough to allow for convective initiation. Soundings show the long and skinny CAPE and saturation throughout the column that is common for storms that could produce heavy rain. Wet microbursts are also possible for this setup, and could produce damaging winds. There are signals for an isolated tornado or two from SRH values 400-500 and model hodographs showing nice turning in the low levels. Hail up to an inch is also possible, but winds and flash flooding will be the main threats. Rain showers and thunderstorms will come to an end south to north on Wednesday. Models already start to diverge after Wednesday, but show signs for more rainfall Thursday night into Friday across a stationary front in the Northern Plains ahead of another system that will bring more chances for rain showers and thunderstorms this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Fog from Lake Superior lingers this morning, leadint to low ceilings at DLH and HYR. Visibilities may occasionally lower at DLH, but should largely remain MVFR or above. Conditions will lower this afternoon as the rain system for today moves in. IFR ceilings and MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected at all terminals with the heaviest rainfall. Thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of the terminals this afternoon and evening. Some storms at or near DLH and HYR could be severe, and capable of producing strong gusts. LLWS is possible late this evening, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 244 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Northeast winds will increase as the system that will bring moderate rain to the area approaches western Lake Superior. Gales are possible in the Twin Ports and along the North Shore with waves up to 11 ft. Storms this evening over western Lake Superior (especially the South Shore) are possible, with strong winds as the main threat. Tonight, as the low center passes, winds will temporarily decrease below gales as winds turn to the southwest. Then winds increase to gales again early Wednesday morning. Winds will start to decrease Wednesday evening, but will remain hazardous to small craft into Thursday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday morning for MNZ010>012-018>021-026. Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday morning for MNZ025-033>038. WI...Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday morning for WIZ001-006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-147-148. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-147- 148. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>146-150. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>146-150. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144-145. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML