805
FXUS63 KDLH 261135
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
635 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms through
  Tuesday over portions of the Northland. The threat for severe
  thunderstorms is low.

- A dry period will occur for most Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Today into Tuesday...

Showers were occurring from southwest Minnesota into the Twin
Ports early this morning (as of 3AM) and this is in response to
a frontal boundary, FGEN, and an upper trough. This band of
showers is forecast to lift north through the morning and we
relied on higher resolution models for timing/location. There
will also be a more southern shortwave and surface low that will
lift into eastern Wisconsin by this evening and spread more
chances for showers to northwest Wisconsin today. QPF from this
system has come down for northwest Wisconsin compared to earlier
forecasts and there is good agreement among most of the models
that the higher amounts will be further south and east of
northwest Wisconsin. There will be some instability today with a
chance for a few thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected.
The showers will diminish Sunday night. Areas of fog are
expected to develop Sunday night, especially around Lake
Superior and the fog may be dense in spots.

There is good agreement that another shortwave will swing
through the upper trough, which will have a center in northwest
Ontario at 12Z Monday. This shortwave will aid in producing
another round of showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day with
chances (60-70%) greatest from Walker and the Brainerd Lakes
southeast through Aitkin, Hinckley, and Siren. Chances taper off
to the northeast of there.

The upper low will drop south into the Northland on Tuesday
with cooler air moving in with it. More showers and
thunderstorms will occur.

Heavy rain is not expected today through Tuesday with amounts
for most less than a half inch. Some localized higher amounts
will occur though. Highs today and Monday will be in the
sixties for most, cooler around the lake today. Tuesday will be
the coolest day of the week with highs in the upper fifties to
lower sixties.

Wednesday through Thursday...

An upper ridge will move into the region mid-week with surface
high pressure and drier air. All areas are expected to be dry on
Wednesday with highs in the sixties. The latest NBM brought in
chances for showers and storms for Thursday. We lowered those
chances, especially for the eastern half of the Northland. The
global models are drier and scanning the 50 ensemble members of
the ECMWF, there is support for drier conditions into Thursday
for most of the Northland. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be
in the upper sixties to lower seventies but be cooler around the
lake at times.

Friday...

There is decent agreement among the global models in bringing a
better chance for showers/storms late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions were occurring for most this morning with
scattered showers from central Minnesota into the Arrowhead and
in far northern Wisconsin. The showers will continue and
increase in coverage over northwest Wisconsin as low pressure
lifts northeast. Dips to MVFR will occur in the stronger showers
and will be most likely over northwest Wisconsin this afternoon
and evening.

Tonight, the showers will diminish or end. There will be some
fog that develops tonight along with stratus, especially around
Lake Superior and in northwest Wisconsin. The may be dense in
spots leading to IFR or lower conditions.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Easterly winds will continue or develop today and be from 8 to
around 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. The wind will be
highest in the Twin Ports area but we don`t think we`ll quite
reach Small Advisory thresholds but we`ll have to keep a close
eye on things. Winds will back to more northerly tonight and
decrease a bit then back to westerly on Memorial Day and be from
8 to 15 knots.

Northwest winds will strengthen some Tuesday and be from 10 to
20 knots, conditions may become hazardous for smaller vessels on
Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde