503
FNUS73 KDLH 241057
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for BWCA SAR...St. Louis County EM
National Weather Service Duluth MN
557 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on May 24.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Search site and General Ely Forecast -

East winds this morning will become southeast and increase to
10-20 mph and gusting up to 35 mph. Winds decrease a bit tonight and
swing through south to southwest. Saturday the south to southwest
winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected.

Rain shower chances move in around mid day today, continuing into
tonight before diminishing for the late night and early Saturday
time frame. Shower chances move back in for Saturday late
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening, and again Saturday evening.

Rainfall amounts this afternoon and tonight between a tenth and a
quarter inch are expected, with locally higher amounts where
thunderstorms pass.

Ely Visibility and Ceilings -

VFR condition this morning will deteriorate this afternoon, with
visibilities falling to 2 to 4 miles this afternoon and early
evening and showers and storms pass across the airport and search
location. Ceilings to lower to around 1500 to 2500 ft (MVFR) this
afternoon. Ceilings are expected to fall as low as 500 to 1000 ft
(IFR) after 5 PM Friday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms
passing over the site. Conditions will improve to VFR early
Saturday morning.

To obtain an official pre-flight weather briefing call
1-800-992-7433.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 9 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph
                    increasing to 36 mph in the afternoon.
Ceiling (kft).......23 decreasing to 2.5.
Visibility (sm).....8 decreasing to 5 late in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  30  50  70  70  80
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
Temp............45  45  45  47  51  51  54  54  53  55  52  52
Surface wnd dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Surface wnd spd.9   11  12  13  14  17  18  18  18  18  18  17
Surface wnd gst.21  23  24  26  28  30  33  35  36  35  35  33
Ceiling (kft)...24  23  25  22  23  17  12  8.6 4.8 3.3 2.9 2.5
Visibility (sm).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  8   6   6   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
                    then chance of rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Surface winds (mph).South winds 10 to 17 mph with gusts to around
                    31 mph shifting to the southwest 8 to 9 mph
                    late in the evening.
Ceiling (kft).......1.3 decreasing to 0.8 early in the evening,
                    then increasing to 1.0 overnight increasing to
                    1.5 after 3 am.
Visibility (sm).....5 increasing to 9.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).80     60     40     30     20     20
Chc of thdr (%).10     M      M      M      M      M
Surface wind....SE 17  SE 13  S 10   SW 9   SW 8   SW 9
Surface wnd gst.31     26     20     17     16     17
Ceiling (kft)...1.6    0.8    0.8    0.8    1.0    1.7
Visibility (sm).6      5      7      7      9      10

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of thunder...MISSING.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 10 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
                    early in the morning.
Ceiling (kft).......1.1 increasing to 2.9 early in the morning,
                    then increasing to 4.8 late in the morning
                    increasing to 6.6 late in the morning
                    increasing to 12 increasing to 17 early in the
                    afternoon increasing to 22 decreasing to 18
                    early in the afternoon decreasing to 15
                    decreasing to 11 late in the afternoon.
Visibility (sm).....10.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     20
Chc of thdr (%).M      M      M      M      M      M
Temp............39     42     48     55     60     63
Surface wind....SW 10  SW 10  W 11   W 12   W 12   W 11
Surface wnd gst.18     20     21     23     24     22
Ceiling (kft)...1.3    2.9    6.6    17     18     11
Visibility (sm).10     10     10     10     10     10

$$
Forecaster...Linda
Requested by...Alex Rice
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2414880.3/DLH
.DELDT 05/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Emergency@slcrs.org,kelvin.mccuskey@state.mn.us,BrinkmanJ@stlouiscountymn.gov,7101@slcrs.org,7310@slcrs.org,7111@slcrs.org,7337@slcrs.org,JohnsonD@stlouiscountymn.gov,7296@slcrs.org