317
FNUS73 KDLH 241703
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for BWCA SAR...St. Louis County EM
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1203 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 CDT on May 24.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Search site and General Ely Forecast -

East winds currently around 15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph will
turn more southeasterly starting at 1-2 PM CDT. At the same time,
these winds are also expected to further increase to 15-20 mph
with gusts of 30-35 mph through 6-7 PM CDT this evening. Winds
quickly veer around to southwesterly after sunset this evening
with winds weakening to 10-15 mph this evening and tonight and
gusts up to 20 mph again during daytime Saturday.

A narrow band of rain showers could clip the Ely vicinity around
1 PM and into the SAR location around 130-2 PM, though this should
be very short in duration (less than 1 hour). There have been a
couple isolated lighting strikes in these showers, but the chances
for a nearby thunderstorm are around 30%. Additional scattered showers
develop and persist from 2 PM through late this evening before
ending for tonight through Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms will
be possible between roughly 2 PM through 8 PM this evening. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return Saturday evening into Saturday
night.

Rainfall amounts this afternoon and tonight between a tenth and a
quarter inch are expected, with locally higher amounts where
thunderstorms pass.

Ely Visibility and Ceilings -

VFR conditions deteriorate this afternoon, with ceilings dropping
to 1500-2000 feet (MVFR) after 2 PM with visibilities falling to
2 to 4 miles this afternoon and early evening and showers and
storms pass across the airport and search location. Ceilings are
expected to fall as low as 600 to 1000 ft (IFR) after 6 PM this
late this afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms
passing over the site, but improve back to MVFR tonight.
Conditions will improve to VFR by mid-Saturday morning.

To obtain an official pre-flight weather briefing call
1-800-992-7433.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and chance
                    of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Chance of thunder...29 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 17 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 36 mph.
Ceiling (kft).......19 decreasing to 2.5.
Visibility (sm).....8 decreasing to 5 late in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....CHC LKY DEF DEF LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30  70  90  90  70  70
Chc of thdr (%).0   20  20  20  30  30
Temp............50  51  53  55  52  52
Surface wnd dir.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Surface wnd spd.17  18  18  18  18  17
Surface wnd gst.33  33  35  36  35  33
Ceiling (kft)...19  11  4.8 3.3 2.9 2.5
Visibility (sm).10  10  8   6   6   5

$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...Alex Rice
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2414880.4/DLH
.DELDT 05/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL 7337@slcrs.org,7101@slcrs.org,Emergency@slcrs.org,7296@slcrs.org,7310@slcrs.org,kelvin.mccuskey@state.mn.us,BrinkmanJ@stlouiscountymn.gov,7111@slcrs.org,JohnsonD@stlouiscountymn.gov